氣象現象에 의한 航空機 遲延 및 缺航의 分析 硏究

Abstract

The geographical location, export-centered industrial and economic structures, and increase in the national income of Korea are boosting demand for air transport, which is a global trend. The air transport records of 190 ICAO member countries increased by 11.7% in 2010. Korean Air Lines and Asiana Air Lines ranked 10th and 30th in global air transport volume, respectively. Particularly for air cargo, Korean Air Lines and Asiana Air Lines ranked 3rd and 10th, respectively. In all airports in Korea, 9.98% of delays and 36.07% of cancellations were caused by meteorological phenomena. This shows that meteorological phenomena are major environmental factors of air traffic. In Korea, three large aircraft accidents caused by meteorological phenomena had occurred. In the USA, 33% of commercial aircraft accidents and 22% of general aircraft accidents were associated with meteorological phenomena. Most of these meteorological phenomena were related to winds and visibility (fog). The annual damages from these accidents amount to 3 billion dollars. At Incheon International Airport, the total delay rate is 3.09%, the delay rate caused by meteorological phenomena is 0.11%, the total cancellation rate is 0.68%, and the cancellation rate caused by meteorological phenomena is only 0.03%. This is because it is the only F-class airport in Korea. The facility class of an airport is the most important cause of delays and cancellations, but the importance of meteorological information can be seen from the percentages of the causes of delays and cancellations in all airports in Korea. All possible safety measures must be established to keep pace with the rapidly increasing demand for air traffic. More active safety measures are necessary especially for Korean airports that have poor environments. Of the 19 airports in Korea, the environments and causes of delays and cancellations in 14 civilian airports were analyzed in accordance with the general causes and meteorological phenomena stipulated in the ICAO standards. The findings from this analysis are summarized below.

1. The average delay rate of all the airports was 2.13%. The main cause was A/C connection, followed by meteorological phenomena and A/C maintenance. The delays due to meteorological phenomena accounted for about 10% of all the delays. 2. The average cancellation rate of all the airports was 1.17%. The main cause was A/C connection, followed by A/C maintenance and meteorological phenomena. The percentage of cancellations due to meteorological phenomena was as high as 36.07%. 3. The meteorological phenomena that caused delays were fog, snowfall, windstorms, rainfall, typhoons, high clouds, and upper-level wind, in descending order. 4. The meteorological phenomena that caused cancellations were fog, windstorms, typhoons, snowfall, high clouds, rainfall, and upper-level wind, in descending order. 5. The analysis of the annual variation in the aircraft delays showed that the causes of meteorological phenomena appeared more frequently between October and February than between March and September. The A/C connection that caused delays and cancellations showed the same annual variation as the meteorological phenomena, which indicates a correlation between the two factors.