中國의 覇權戰略과 韓國의 對應 硏究

Abstract

Abstract

A Study on Korean Countermeasures against the Chinese hegemonic strategy

Kim, Ji-Dong Advisor : Prof. Oh, Soo-Yol Ph. D Department of Political Science and Diplomacy The Graduate School of Chosun University

This article attempts to analyze China's economic, cultural and military hegemony strategies and present Korea’s countermeasures against an emerging China as a global superpower in the 21st century. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate over the past twenty years has been phenomenal and if continued even at a slightly slower pace, could exceed the GDP of the United States by 2020. It is highly conceivable that China might convert the economic power into military and diplomatic power. Given China's domination of Tibet, incursions into the Spratly Islands, run-ins with the US and Japan, and a host of other seemingly assertive behavior, the purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether continued economic growth will lead to increasing hegemonic tendencies. Now that the world has several powerful countries such as the United States, Russia, China, Japan, and EU nations. A mutual cooperation and competition with each other could be established with a substantial American-centric system. Japan’s enormous influence as an economic superpower has the ability to be able to manufacture their own nuclear weapons. In addition, its Self-Defense Force has the ability to be able to display a great amount of force when push comes to shove. Likewise Russia, based on its huge demography and resources, is accelerating military buildup including various political and diplomatic activities for the glory of the Soviet Union. China, in particular is emerging as the supreme nation, with rising economic growth and its huge population, nuclear weapons, advanced military science and technology has enough threatening influence to challenge American hegemony. Nowadays China is known as one of the ‘two major global leader (G2)’ the other being the United States. It is inevitable that the supreme position of the United States is to be weakened in the course of the transition from a unipolar world to multipolar world. At the same time China must make compromisations in order to challenge the hegemonic position of the U.S. Therefore, at some point in the middle of the 21st century, the United States and China may resort to force in the transition of power. Today, it is undeniable that China is climbing the ranks as one world's strongest countries in terms of population, territory, military and economic power etc.. The year 2009, hold a special relevance to China as a nation, as this year is the 60th year since the New China Construction and the 20th anniversary of the Tyeonanmun square tragedy, and the beginning of China’s reform and opening up. Since Hu Jintao gained the reins of power, Hu has been making efforts to fulfill China’s ‘peaceful rise’, the path of ‘peace and development’, and ‘harmonious diplomacy’ in the world. China’s modernization and its Rise as a major global power has impacted U.S.’s hegemony in East Asia. China is playing an important role through economic trading and security cooperation with East Asian countries in the region. In addition, the Chinese Leadership attempts not only to create East Asian regional cooperative institutions (e.g. CAFTA, EAC etc.) with China at the center, but also to expel the U.S. to the periphery. Watching these China’s recent development aspects South Korea government should take notice that China showed off sinocentrism by hosting Beijing Olympic and succeeding in challenging space walks. The reflections from the academic world regarding this Chinese hegemonic ambition are various. Among them, realists consider China’s Rise as a threat and suppose China compete with the United States for supremacy to maintain the balance of power, while liberalists insist China maintain a cooperative relationship with the United States to pursue its economic interests. From a realistic perspective the balance of power theory, which is based on the stability of international order depends on keeping on the balance of powers, is totally different from the power transition theory, which can be called the theory of hegemonic stability in that it makes the assumption that the international order forms a kind of the hierarchy. Accordingly among these realists, A. F. K. Orgenski makes an assertion that when the power of the United States and China is similar, the possibility where warfare will happen is high and when the growth rate of the defiant nation is rapid the redistribution of national power happens. Applying this theory to the security situation in Northeast Asia, the United States is the dominator and China the challenger. At present, though seemingly and diplomatically. China opposes supremacy, but, it is evident that a lot of tendencies such as China’s modernization of military equipment, the development of a nuclear aircraft carrier, the promotion of constructing the pelagic Navy, the Northeast Project, several historical distortions of history etc. look like the preparation work for seeking hegemony in the 21st century for some time. Coping with American's countermeasures China also would seek immediate counter action for it. On the basis of strategic ambiguity, China maintains defensive realism and offensive realism at the same time. In short, reinforcing strategic ties with Russia and India; trying to drive economic and security multilateralism; enhancing China’s military modernization; promoting energy diplomacy; supporting North Korea by economic aid on the whole, and on the contrary, firmly opposing independence of Taiwan including taking military actions. China’s pursuit of global hegemony will have a profound impact on the security situation of South Korea and surrounding nations. Under these circumstances, it is important for us to take measures to counterbalance the rising economic clout of China and its military modernization. It is a critical problem of how to deal with a modernizing and more powerful Chinese military financed by the growing Chinese Economy. The series of these countermeasures include: First of all, strengthening a Korean-American alliance would be a starting point. Under the circumstance that the security threat of the Korean Peninsula is more and more increasing. a Korean-American alliance can be the best defence. Secondly, South Korea should strengthen security cooperation between Korea and China. In doing so maintain the relationship of military trust with China by increasing exchanges and cooperation as befits the ‘strategic partnership’ signed with China last year. Thirdly, a multilateral security cooperation system with neighboring countries in Northeast Asia should be setup. China will endeavor to secure its exclusive influence on the Korean Peninsula. So South Korea and surrounding nations should make a constant effort to check and prevent China’s hegemonic ambition. Finally, military buildup should be the focus of the Korean government. Military power is the surest security means for national interest. To be more specific, conducting large-scale restructuring of militaries, and securing high-tech weapons systems, building up a Missile Defense System, expanding asymmetric power system, improving facilities for the U.S. forces etc. all of these things must be pursued first. Needless to say for that the defense budget should be increased. Consequently, the South Korean government should establish national grand security strategy in a comprehensive and coordinated way having a bird’s-eye view of supremacy strategy of China and surrounding nations.