韓·中·日 자유무역협정(FTA) 체결의 경제적 효과에 관한 연구 : 商品交易에 미치는 效果 및 대응방안을 中心으로

Abstract

These days multilateralism and loca1ism coexist and prosper in the world economy, and localization through local trade agreement is deepening. After East Asia’s economic crisis integration, the trend of the regional economies is getting obvious in the Northeast of Asia. A1though there is a discussion about FTA of Korea with China and Japan, the council of FTA between the countries is also important. Thus, I would like to progress the study of FTA between Korea and China. Korea's economy has developed due to trade. Nowadays, under the complex circumstance of globaIization and regionalism, Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is emerging as a way of national strategies to break through the complex circumstances. As most nations in the region of East Asia, the birth of World Trade Organization(WTO), has lately performed the works related with FTA, and the conclusion of FTA in the region of the North-East Asia can be meaningful in constructing such economic communities as EU and NAFTA of FTA in the world. On the process of FTA development, economic and historical obstacles from various nations make FTA negotiations delayed. In view of economic effects, Korea needs to restructure her manufacturing sector and agriculture to minimize the possible negative effects of FTA. with a strategic manufacturing sector. However, some parts of our manufacturing sector may be negatively affected on our FTA partners in the East Asian region. However, we still face with some obstacles in achieving any kind of economic integration in the form of Free Trade Area because of widening intra-regional trade imbalance, deterioration of the overall efficiency of resource allocation, the economic differences between the members, China's adherence to its socialist regime and also a lingering and bitter history in the region. Therefore, to create Northeast Asian Free Trade Area, we need to implement strategy that will gradually lead to a regional economic integration while overcoming the aforementioned obstacles. We can take a long-term perspective in propelling economic integration of the Northeast Asian countries. First of all, trade regimes in the respective countries should be harmonized through strengthened cooperation, which can serve as frameworks for economic integration for the medium and short terms. Then, based on unified trade regimes, elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers through the gradual and asymmetric approaches can be followed for the purpose of expanding market access. With these steps, we can temporarily mitigate the negative side effects which may be incurred and probably mitigate the negative side effects which may be incurred through simply expanding market access by securing time in advance for the enterprises in the region to acclimatize themselves to the trade environment. Korea-China-Japan FTA should be future-oriented with the spirit of a new bilateral or trilateral partnership and action plans based on open regionalism, In assessing the economic effects of Korea-China-Japan FTA, they have to pay more attention to long-term positive dynamic effects rather than to the short-term negative static effects. However, in order to avoid the uncertainty of the long-term positive effects and to secure strong impetus for the pursuit of Korea-China-Japan FTA, both members have to seek the means by which to achieve closer cooperation and coordination between them. So as to increase the long-term dynamic effects, they have closely to coordinate their domestic reform policies such as deregulation and governance transparency, in particular, of China as well as their external policies for promoting the bilateral and/or trilateral cooperation in investment, industry and technology, and the expansion of the exchange of human resources. For example, Korea, China and Japan need to standardize and modernize the different trade norms of each country, such as customs procedure, anti-dumping rules, rules of origin, the unification of product classification, etc, in order to lay down the framework for economic integration. Even though the economic impact of an once-and-for-all trade liberalization at the same level among the countries was analyzed in this paper, it is far away from a reality. A step-by-step trade liberalization amang them will be more plausible: The liberalization scenario could consist of differential liberalization regimes based on a subsequent liberalization of Korea and China.