실물옵션을 활용한 공기업 신재생에너지 개발사업 가치평가 연구
- Author(s)
- 나승범
- Issued Date
- 2020
- Keyword
- 유휴공간, 실물옵션, 불확실성, 의사결정
- Abstract
- Recently, due to the frequent safety accidents on the SOC(Social Overhead Capital) infrastructure, the need for appropriate maintenance measure and budgetary support for infrastructure has surfaced. Especially in the case of water facilities, while its aging rate hits as high as 20.5%, it is difficult to secure the sufficient amount of budget, hence, delaying the improvement repair of the water facilities. Therefore, this study proposes a long term solution in reducing the maintenance of the national financial burden and support the government's policy goal of expanding the supply of renewable energy in the short term.
In this study, a solar energy construction project was assumed using the idle slope (land solar) and idle surface (water solar) of the'N Dam' in Jeollanam-do, a maintenance and repair facility of the Korea Rural Community Corporation, analyzing the economic feasibility using the value method (NPV), and additionally evaluating the business value(ROV) reflecting the volatility of the system limit price (SMP), which is considered as a major revenue volatility factor for renewable energy projects. After analyzing the results of the net present value (NPV), in the case for land solar power(Phase1), a value of (-)123 million won was analyzed and was judged that there would be difficulties in decision making for business promotion. In addition, in the case of floating photovoltaic power generation (Phase2), the value of (+)3.52 million won(in low project cost forecast) and (-)2.66 billion won(in high project cost forecast) was analyzed and the ambiguity of decision-making was confirmed. This net present value (NPV) reanalyzed the business value by using real options analysis because uncertainty inherent in the business cannot be taken into account for this limit.
In the real option evaluation method, in the case of land solar power(Phase1) and solar power(Phase2), the defer option to improve business value is considered by taking account the passive business promotion decision-making due to the existing (-)NPV, and pending the business promotion until the business environment improves or the uncertainty is resolved and analyzed. As a result of analysis, the eNPV of land solar power(phase1) and floating solar power(phase2) was analyzed to be 322.2 million won and 2.73 billion won respectively, and this result shows that it is possible to take a different path than from the existing decision by securing an additional value compared to the existing (-)NPV. In addition, a scenario in which the facility is expanded to 5% according to changes in the future was analyzed by setting up a water solar construction project using 1% of idle water surface. As a result of analysis, the eNPV was analyzed to be 3.69 billion won, and this value means that an additional return of approximately 171.4 million won can be expected compared to the existing NPV analysis. However, it has been confirmed that this revenue has ambiguity in the promotion of expansion decision-making due to poor earnings compared to 65 billion won in extended investment costs. In this study, therefore, changes in the price of solar cell modules, which have the greatest impact on the cost of water solar power projects, were utilized, and ROV changes due to changes in the cost of business were analyzed additionally, and it was confirmed that it was reasonable to consider expansion options in the case of a decrease of 30% or more compared to the existing cost of business.
- Alternative Title
- Research on the Evaluation of the Value of Renewable Energy Development Projects by Public Companies Utilizing Real Options
- Alternative Author(s)
- Na, Seoung Beom
- Affiliation
- 토목공학과
- Department
- 일반대학원 토목공학과
- Advisor
- 장우식
- Awarded Date
- 2020-08
- Table Of Contents
- ABSTRACT
제1장 서 론 1
1.1 연구배경 및 필요성 1
1.2 연구 목적 4
1.3 논문 구성 5
제2장 선행연구 고찰 6
2.1 실물옵션을 활용한 신재생에너지사업의 경제성분석 6
2.1.1 수력발전에 대한 실물옵션분석연구 6
2.1.2 풍력발전에 대한 실물옵션분석연구 8
2.1.3 태양광발전에 대한 실물옵션분석연구 11
2.2 수상 태양광 발전시스템의 동향 14
2.2.1 국내동향 14
2.2.2 해외동향 18
제3장 이론적 배경 20
3.1 실물옵션의 개념 및 이용실태 20
3.1.1 실물옵션의 개념 20
3.1.2 실물옵션의 중요성 및 선진기업의 이용실태 21
3.1.3 금융옵션과 실물옵션의 차이 26
3.2 실물옵션과 전통적 평가방법 28
3.2.1 전통적 가치평가모형의 한계 28
3.2.2 실물옵션과 NPV의 한계 33
3.3 실물옵션의 종류와 변수들 36
3.3.1 실물옵션의 종류 36
3.3.2 실물옵션의 변수들 40
3.3.3 불확실성과 옵션의 가치 43
3.4 실물옵션의 평가모형 45
3.4.1 실물옵션의 논리 45
3.4.2 실물옵션의 논리 48
제4장 사례분석 55
4.1 전통적 가치평가 방법을 활용한 경제성분석(1단계) 55
4.1.1 사업의 개요 55
4.1.2 기상자원 57
4.1.3 비용추정 58
4.1.4 편익추정 61
4.1.5 경제성 분석 데이터 64
4.1.6 순현재가치(NPV) 분석 및 결과 66
4.2 실물옵션 분석법(ROA)을 이용한 가치평가 69
4.2.1 실물옵션에 의한 4단계 가치평가 과정 69
4.2.2 실물옵션의 변동성 추정 70
4.2.3 실물옵션의 사상나무(Event Tree)(2단계) 74
4.2.4 의사결정나무(Decision Tree) 및 사업가치 산정(3.4 단계) 79
제5장 결론 및 향후연구 87
5.1 요약 및 결론 87
5.2 향후연구 89
참 고 문 헌 90
- Degree
- Master
- Publisher
- 조선대학교 대학원
- Citation
- 나승범. (2020). 실물옵션을 활용한 공기업 신재생에너지 개발사업 가치평가 연구.
- Type
- Dissertation
- URI
- https://oak.chosun.ac.kr/handle/2020.oak/14312
http://chosun.dcollection.net/common/orgView/200000335584
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