북한 군사전략의 변화와 한국군의 대응전략에 관한 연구

Abstract

ABSTRACT A Study on the Change of North Korea Military Strategy and the Response Strategy of Korea Army

Song, Se Gwang Advisor: Prof. Oh, Soo-Yol, Ph.D. Department of Military Science, Graduate School of Chosun University

The aim of this research is to analyze the change factor of military strategy according to the change of domestic and foreign security environment in North Korea and propose the counter strategy of the Military in South Korea to counteract the military strategy in North Korea on Jeong Eun Kim era. That is, the aim of this research is to investigate the military strategy in North Korea on Jeong Eun Kim era from Military Science point of view by analyzing the change factor of military strategy in North Korea by analyzing with emphasis on the change of the view of the war for country liberation in North Korean government, change of Supreme leader’s governing leadership and strengthen of asymmetrical military power in terms of the goal, operational concept and method which are three main components in military strategy and suggest counter strategy of the military in South Korea to counteract by separating with suppression and war performance strategy. Military strategy of a country is a core strategy for national security. So, reasonable and realizable military strategy should be established which can utilize overall ability of the country. That is, military strategy should be established to suppress the war with full consideration of domestic and foreign security environment and the capability of the country and so on and to defend the country and protect the life and property of the nation by winning the war when the suppression is failed. Especially, to establish the counter strategy by precise analysis of the military strategy of North Korea is most important factor in establishing military strategy of Korean military in the Korean Peninsula which South and North Korea are counterposing. So, this research begins under the premise that the counter strategy of Korean military to counteract newly established military strategy in North Korea in Jeong Eun Kim era by analyzing the change factor of military strategy in North Korea to establish reasonable military strategy of Korean military. Two conflict military strategy such as country liberation war paradigm and limited war paradigm are in direct opposition to each other according to the point of view is the reality of military strategy of North Korea. That is, firstly, the military strategy of North Korea still maintains offensive military strategy pursuing general war for unification under communism based on definition of war. Country liberation war followers are pay attention on the specialty of the system in North Korea which the government of North Korea as unreasonable performer. According to them, the government of North Korea does not discard the aim of unification under communism though domestic and foreign security environment becomes worse and premises that they will not act reasonably as the Western nations think. Secondly, limited war followers observe the objective index such as the limitation in war sustaining capability due to poor economic power of North Korea and premise that the North Korea is a normal country. Based on this logic, the government in North Korea only can persue defensive limited war aiming to maintain the system giving up the unification under communism by military force because they are fall behind in the system competition between South and North Korea due to poor security environment after the end of cold war. However, these two properties are mixed in the military strategy based on the behavior of the government of North Korea and any one sided insistence can not overwhelm the other insistence completely. Based on above, though the Defense White Paper judges that the prolonged war will be limited because the war materials are only for 1∼3 months and do not have the war sustaining capability, it also makes mixed judges such as that the government of North Korea pursues surprise attack, mixing war, and intensive offensive attach strategy for unification under communism. So, the aim of this research is to suggest the direction of counter strategy of Korean military by analyzing that how the military strategy of North Korea is changed under above two point of view in paying attention to the view of country liberation war and rule leadership of supreme leader and strengthening of asymmetric war capabilities such as nuclear weapon and WMD. In order that, this research investigated the change factor of military strategy in North Korea through the analysis model such as goal, operational concept and method which are three main components in military strategy. That is, the change of view of country liberation war in the government of North Korea put as the goal aspect, rule leadership change of supreme leader put as the operational concept aspect, and asymmetric war capabilities such as nuclear weapon and WMD and so on put as the method and analyzed in this research. Based on the research for the change of military strategy in North Korea under this research model, it is analyzed that the government of North Korea changes the goal from unification under communism of the Korean Peninsula based on view of country liberation war to system maintain strategy as absolute safeguard of the leadership. Also, in the aspect of military force operation, the government of North Korea operate the military force with stick-and-carrot strategy and existence suppression strategy preventing the war from the attack of US and absolutely safeguard Jeong Eun Kim in the aspects of military force operation at the time of peace by influencing the growth process of Jeong Eun Kim and with offensive and people friendly twofold rule leadership, and then change the strategy to contribute to create favorable negotiation condition on political and military negotiation by operating offensive military force and securing strategical area such as Seoul and so on by limited war sustaining capability at wartime. In the aspect of method, the government of North Korea ensures the flexibility and irregularity on the military strategy by developing nuclear weapon and WMD due to limitation in arms race with ROK-US Alliance by lack of national defense resources. That is, North Korea at Jeong Eun Kim era changes their military strategy for absolute safeguard of the leadership and maintain the system by implementing North Korea - US summit to construct friendly security environment to maintain the system by making favorable condition for them through the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula for the ceasefire status maintains from Korean War to until so far due to the change of domestic and foreign security environment such as international economic sanctions and military impact of US due to the development of nuclear weapon and WMD. So, the military strategy of Jeong Eun Kim influenced by the change factors can be drawn as follows. Firstly, the government of North Korea basically pursue the aim of unification under communism in the Korean Peninsula based on country liberation war, but considering absolutely dominant military force of ROK-US Alliance and economic problem inside North Korea, it is analyzed that the government of North Korea amend the military strategy aim as realistic as to maintain their system, suppression strategy to prevent containment offensive from US at the time of peace and surround Seoul and the north of the Han river and achieve their political goal. It is judged that the government of North Korea pursue the stick-and-carrot strategy and existence suppression strategy to maintain Jeong Eun Kim system continuously and to construct friendly and structured security environment at the time of peace through above goal amendment. Secondly, based on above goal amendment, it could be investigated that the military force operation preparing the war in the Korean Peninsula at the time of emergency becomes more offensive. That is, it can be confirmed that the rule type centering the supreme leader, Jeong Eun Kim, is developed with different behavior such as 'Offensive decisive battle strategy' binding 'intensive offensive attach strategy' and 'Strategy securing strategy mixing WMD‘ flexible and irregularly maintaining their traditional surprise attack, mixing war, and short term competition basis. Thirdly, it also can be confirmed at the same time that the government of North Korea faced economic problem due to nuclear weapon development is limited in conventional military force construction, so they increased asymmetrical military force such as nuclear weapon and WMD and so on and used it as the method to maintain the system at the time of peace and developing it as a core method to prepare the general war at the time of emergency. So, the military strategy of the military in South Korea should be differentiated with present to counteract actively for the change of military strategy in North Korea in Jeong Eun Kim era before taking wartime operational control. That is, current and future military strategy of military in South Korea should overcome defensive limitation reflecting existing military strategy to suppress the war by counteracting the threat of the military in North Korea who is armed with WMD and reflecting the change of war performance concept according to the trend of future war development. So, the counteract strategy of the military in South Korea is suggested separating as war suppression strategy and war performance strategy at the time of peace in this research. Firstly, the military in South Korea should ensure the reliability of expansion suppression force provided by US to suppress the provocation of the government of North Korea armed with WMD and perform 'Offensive suppression' operating offensive military force complexly combines kill chain, KAMD and KMPR which are three axes system of military in South Korea. Secondly, this research suggests 'Preemptive strike based strategy object securing strategy' as the war performance strategy preparing the case of war when the suppression is failed and the government in North Korea preemptively carry out military provocation or accidental impact expanded as war. That is, the war performance method should be developed as 'Preemptive strike based strategy object securing strategy' which can accomplish national unification with minimum life and property of the nation by early close of the war with decisive winning by mental paralysis of leadership and military in North Korea by quick attack and securing strategical objects which are center of the government in North Korea preemptively based on prepared suppression force.