호남지역의 강수량 변화에 대한 시·공간적 특성 분석

Abstract

The climate of the Honam area is warmer than the Korean average. In particular, the Jeonbuk area has insufficient water resources as its annual precipitation does not reach the Korean average; Mangyeong River and Dongjin River basins in the area are short; and the area lacks fresh water facilities. In addition, the area has the greatest number of fishery workers and farmlands in Korea. Therefore, it is easily affected by significant weather. Studies are required to take action to the climate change, especially the ones on the precipitation to take advantage of the water resources that is essential for the living activities. In this study, the temporal and spatial precipitation changes during the period from 1973 to 2011 were analyzed for eight stations in Jeollanam-do (Goheung, Gwangju, Mokpo, Yeosu, Wando, Jangheung, Juam and Haenam) and six stations in Jeollabuk-do (Gunsan, Namwon, Buan, Imsil, Jeonju and Jeongeup), and the characteristics of the precipitation were determined via the statistical and regression analysis. In the Honam area, the annual average precipitation increased by 35 mm, and the precipitation in summer compared with the total precipitation increased by 1.75%, which indicated that the precipitation was becoming intensive in summer. The annual maximum 1-hour precipitation increased across all areas except for Wando, and the increase was the most significant in Juam, Jangheung and Goheung, which are located along the south coast. The annual maximum daily precipitation also increased in most Honam areas. The increase was especially significant in Imsil, Namwon and Juam. It decreased in the southwest coast area. All of the 0.1-, 10-, 80-, and 150-mm precipitation days increased in most areas. The increase was higher than the average of Honam area in Wando, Juam, Gunsan, Jeonju and Jeongeup. The continuous days of precipitation was 1 day to 10 days in that order, but the corresponding precipitation was highest for 2 days, followed by 3 days, 1 day and 4 days in that order, except for Gwangju, Jangheung, Jeonju, Buan, Imsil and Jeongeup. In the RCP4.5 (540 ppm) scenario according to the expected change in the precipitation in Korea, the precipitation of 2070-2099 is expected to increase from the average values of 1971-2000 by 17.3%. In the RCP8.5 (940 ppm), it is expected to increase by 20.4%. Because the increase in the precipitation is significant in the south coast and mid-west area, it is expected that the increase will be higher in the south coast area than other areas. The results of this study provide the statistical analysis of the annual and seasonal precipitation changes by area to establish the efficient water resource management system according to the climate change, and to prepare the disaster prevention plans suitable for each region according to the changes in the seasonal precipitation difference and climate extreme events.