北韓 經濟政策決定의 影響要因에 관한 國際政治經濟學的 分析

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Since 1990’s, because of the collapse and disintegration of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, DPRK lost the main foreign economic contact. Besides, the centralized planned economy system at home revealed its rigidity day by day and natural diseases happened frequently at that time. All this led to a serious economic crisis in DPRK. In order to recover and develop the economy, DPRK started to seek a new way of development and carefully tried reform and opening.
During the twenty years’ development, DPRK has done some adjustments to the domestic reform and the outside opening and some of the policies played quite a positive promotion role. However, the reform and opening of DPRK proceeded really slowly. The enforcement of the policies also lacked stability and permanency. In the reform, steps backwards even happened. This is mainly limited by North Korea’s own condition and the outside environment.
Considering DPRK’s own condition, since 1990’s, it has been facing two subjects: one is to protect and strengthen the present structure; the other is to get rid of the economic predicament. At present, for the centralized political DPRK, the maintenance of the system is irreplaceable and highest national interests. DPRK enforces a one-party controlled , centralized political system, taking 'Juche thought' as its guiding thought, Songun politics as its guiding principle and construction of a big socialized country as its strategic aim. All aspects of politics, economy, military and social life take orders from the only governor. Under the centralized political system, the formulation and enforcement of the domestic and outside economic policies inevitably gets a direct and close control from the political system. Therefore, DPRK’s political system's features and trends will necessarily effect the direction of the formulation and enforcement of economic policies and determine the process of the reform and opening.
The manifestation of the centralized political system in economic field is the enforcement of the planned economic system. Since the 90’s, DPRK has got stuck in the serious economic difficulty and the rationing system under the planned economic governance system got into crisis. In order to maintain living, DPRK allowed the existence and development of the market. However, the development of the market brought a lot of side effects, which were regarded as a dangerous factor for the stability of political power. Therefore, since 2005, as the centralized political system became more and more conservative, the economic policies were constrained directly and the corresponding policies were made as well. On the one hand, the conservatism in politics directly led to the stronger control of the domestic market in economic field and reinforcement of the maintenance and consolidation of the planned economic governing system; on the other hand, in order to get rid of the domestic economic difficulty and to achieve the strategic objective towards a strong power, DPRK tried to open up outside markets and showed will to promote the opening, though at the same time it started to enclose the domestic markets.
As for the outside environment of the opening of DPRK, the main influential countries are America, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia. Because the neighboring countries’ policies objectives towards DPRK are different, according to the changes of the national interests, these policies are in constant change in different times. However, the dominant tone of the policies towards DPRK determines whether these countries mainly blockade and impose sanctions against DPRK, or communicate and cooperate with DPRK. Besides, this also poses a profound effect on DPRK’s domestic and outside economic politics.
Among the neighboring countries, America is the biggest outside opposite factor in DPRK’s opening. Because America and DPRK haven’t achieved relation normalized, America doesn’t change its hostility and containment towards DPRK, though America’s policy became a little mild in Clinton Administration and the end of George W. Bush Administration. Constrained by this dominant tone of the policy towards DPRK, America mainly imposes sanctions and blockades the DPRK’s economy, which impels DPRK to seek the recovery and development of the economy by relying on its own efforts and tend to push Songun politics route. Under the guide of the Songun politics route, DPRK performed 2 nuclear tests. In the 2009’s representative members’ election, the figures from the headquarters also increased. DPRK’s political institution tends to be more and more conservative, which constrains its opening tendency.
Because of the existence of Japanese American Alliance and Korean American Alliance, US-DPRK relations directly ties up the development of inter Korean relations and DPRK-Japanese relations. When the cold war came to the end, the international environment tended to be mild on the whole. South Korea seeks to play a larger autonomy in the policies towards DPRK by its strong economic strength and the protection of the Korean American relations. Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun Administrations implemented the policy of reconciliation and cooperation toward DPRK and inter Korean political relations turned to be milder and economic cooperation also made considerable progress. However, America’s policy towards DPRK constrains and controls the process of inter Korean reconciliation and cooperation, which made South Korea’s reconciliation and cooperation policy towards DPRK hard to achieve a breakthrough. After Lee Myung-bak took office, he turned to follow America’s tough policy towards DPRK and Inter-Korean economic cooperation came to a standstill. Japan’s policy towards DPRK is deeply constrained by American’s policy towards DPRK and also influenced by the changes of DPRK’s policy. In recent years, Japan implemented the policy of following America. Its policy towards DPRK has changed from the mild attitude in the early time of cold war to a tough attitude. Japan’s economic policy towards DPRK is based on blockade and sanctions. Furthermore, Japan sometimes took more severe sanctions policy towards DPRK than America.
As America, Japan and South Korea’s policies towards DPRK tended to be tough, DPRK strengthened its communication and cooperation with China and Russia and the economic reliance has increased as well, esp. DPRK enlarged its opening up to China. China becomes the biggest contributing factor in North Korea’s opening up. Since the late 1970’s, as the international relations became mild, China has constantly promoted the reform and opening up policy and the work center shifted to economic construction. Creating a stable environment and maintaining and preserving economic development is China’s highest national interests. China actively promotes economic cooperation with North Korea, on the one hand is to help DPRK recover and develop its economy, preventing it collapse because of economic predicament, which will influence China’s safe environment that is necessary for China’s economic construction; on the other hand, by promoting DPRK’s reform and opening up, further deepen China's reform and opening up and achieve China's revitalization of northeast old industrial base. Russia-DPRK relations have undergone the coldness at the early time of the Cold War to the continued recovery and strengthening since the 90’s. Russia hopes to keep its influence on DPRK and promotes the economic development in the fast east area by economic cooperation with DPRK, South Korea, and China.
Under the interaction of internal and external factors, DPRK's economic policy was adjusted to Adduction putting policy on the condition of possession of nuclear weapons. In accordance with changes of political relations with China and South Korea, DPRK adjusted the direction of the opening to China from South Korea. DPRK’s will of possession of nuclear weapons aims to maintain the security of the political system, force the neighboring countries to strengthen the concern for the interests of the DPRK, reduce the international community’s economic sanctions on North Korea, ease the pressure on the domestic economy and create a good environment for opening up. But DPRK's economic policy in the process of concrete implementation will face many obstacles. In the internal reform, because DPRK has not got rid of economic difficulties and the rationing system under planning economic management has not fully recovered, the market can’t be closed completely. DPRK will fall into a dilemma–unable to laissez-faire market nor limit the market. In the opening, the DPRK will continue to caution the wave. From DPRK's own reality, concerns on institutional security limit DPRK's reform and opening up and the planned economic management system contradicts with market economy.
Besides DPRK’s economic foundation is weak and the marketing economic factor is too tiny to influence the power of the government’s reform, which limits the tendency of opening up in North Korea. Particularly, the strategy of the possessing nuclear weapons is contrary to the denuclearization policy of the neighboring countries including China, which leads to a lack of a good external environment for reform and opening up. DPRK’s opening up also got into dilemma.
Although now there are still many barriers existing in the DPRK’s reform and opening up, it should be noted that DPRK will still be possible to drive reform and opening up. In the DPRK regime transition, DPRK creates external stress to strengthen the internal unity. When DPRK’s regime is stable, the DPRK will return to the negotiating table with neighboring countries and in order to attract more capital to promote economic development, DPRK is likely to get serious with the opening up question.
Alternative Title
An Analysis on the Effect Factors of DPRK's Reform and Opening Up Policies using IPE Theory
Alternative Author(s)
Li Xue Wei
조선대학교 대학원 무역학과
일반대학원 무역학과
Awarded Date
Table Of Contents
【목 차】

제1장 서 론 1
제1절 연구배경 및 목적 1
제2절 연구방법과 내용 5

제2장 이론적 논의 및 분석틀의 구성 8
제1절 선행연구 검토 8
제2절 연구의 이론적 배경 15
1. 개방시스템이론 15
2. 국제정치경제이론 20
제3절 분석의 틀 24

제3장 북한 경제정책의 변천과정 26
제1절 북한 대내경제정책의 변천과정 26
1. 농업정책과 관리체제 개혁 26
2. 7․1경제개선조치의 시행 29
제2절 북한 대외경제정책 변천과정 33
1. 법률 제정과 대외경제합작사업 33
2. 대외무역 체제개혁과 현황 45

제4장 북한 경제정책결정의 내부요인 분석 56
제1절 북한 정치체제의 특성 57
1. 당-국가체제와 권력구조의 변화 57
2. 주체사상의 수립과 역할 62
3. 선군정치의 배경과 목표 70
4. 강성대국 전략 78
제2절 경제정책결정에 대한 정치체제특성의 영향 83
1. 경제위기와 계획경제체제 강화 83
2. 국내시장의 발전과 침체 97
3. 대외개방정책의 조정 103

제5장 북한 경제정책결정의 외부요인 분석 106
제1절 관련국의 대북정치정책 변화 분석 107
1. 미국 공화당과 민주당의 대북정치정책 107
2. 중국과 북한관계의 시험과 발전 114
3. 한국의 햇볕정책과 대북 강경정책 119
4. 일본의 대북 대화와 압박정책 131
5. 러시아의 대북관계 소원과 회복 131
제2절 관련국의 대북경제정책 조정 135
1. 미국의 대북 경제제재의 변화 135
2. 중국의 대북 경제협력 강화 141
3. 한국의 대북 경제협력과 제재 147
4. 일본의 대북 경제제재 강화 152
5. 러시아의 대북 경제협력 회복 157
제3절 북한의 경제정책결정에 미치는 영향 161
1. 미국이 북한경제정책결정에 미치는 영향 161
2. 중국이 북한경제정책결정에 미치는 영향 165
3. 한국이 북한경제정책결정에 미치는 영향 170
4. 일본이 북한경제정책결정에 미치는 영향 173
5. 러시아가 북한경제정책결정에 미치는 영향 176

제6장 결 론 179

참고문헌 185
【표 목 차】

국제정치경제학의 주요 학설 비교 22
7·1 경제개선조치 주요 내용 30
나진-선봉 자유경제무역구 단계별 개발 목표 37
사회주의국가 대북한의 경제원조(1945—1970) 48
북한의 무상원조 및 차관 도입 실적 49
1985-1991년 대북 투자기업 현황 51
북한의 년도별 대외무역 추이 52
북한의 국가별 무역거래 구성비(1991-1999) 52
북한 대외무역 동향 53
주체사상 체계의 형성과정 63
북한 4대 군사노선의 정책목표 73
북한의 식량 수급량 추이 85
북한의 주요 원자재 공급 추이 86
북한의 에너지 공급 추이 88
북한의 발전설비용량과 발전량 89
북한의 재정규모 추이 91
북한의 외채규모 추이 92
북한의 시장 변천사 98
경제관리개선조치의 내용과 2005년 이후 제한 내용 비교 101
상생공영 정책의 체계 123
90년대 북·중 무역현황 142
90년대 북한의 식량도입 실적 143
90년대 북한의 원유도입 실적 143
2000년대 북한의 대중국 무역의존도 144
2000년대 북·중 무역 현황 145
남북교역액 추이 147
2000년 이후 북중·남북 무역의존도 비교 148
한국의 대북 에너지 관련 설비·자재 제공현황 150
90년대 북일 무역 현황 153
2000-2008년 북일 무역 현황 155
90년대 북한과 러시아의 무역 현황 157
미국의 대북 경제제재의 원인과 관련 법 163

【그 림 목 차】

분석의 틀 25
북한의 외국인투자 관련 법체계 35
북한의 국가목표와 개혁개방 76
2004-2009년도 길림성과 전국 대외무역 의존도 비교 166
이설위. (2011). 北韓 經濟政策決定의 影響要因에 관한 國際政治經濟學的 分析.
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