한·중 FTA 체결에 따른 경제적 효과 분석

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The world's economy extends continuous regional economic integration, such as Europe Union, NAFTA, and the structure of Ease-Asian economic block. The Korean economy is externally lagged behind the trend of regionalism and is orienting toward becoming an intermediary-trade country in order to increase its competitive power in the world market, joining the international FTA competition. Domestically, it is pursuing economic growth through the export-oriented growth strategy, but its potential growth rate is estimated to further decrease due to the low birth rate and the sustained aging of society.
Since 2003, China has been the most important export country of Korea. Recently, the proportion of the import from China in the overall import has increased as well. China is a huge market whose population takes more the 20.5% of the world's population, and taking the regional proximity into account, the profit of economic integration is expected to increase. FTA has been proved to be one of the best ways to open up foreign markets for Korean exporters. The government of South Korea has always sought the opportunity to sign an FTA with other countries, including China that has been recognized to be the world largest market due to his large population. This paper discussed the strong economic interaction between Korea and China as well as the positive and negative economic effects with Korea-China FTA.
The discussion of this paper mainly based on the manufacture industry because it could greatly reflect the real status of economic interaction between Korea and China. Also, the manufacture productions are the domain commodities flowing between China and Korea. By calculating the index of trade intensity, revealed comparative advantage, export similarity, and trade specialization, we can know that: the trade and industrial structure is different between Korea and China, and the FTA can bring the enormous benefit on both countries; the FTA is expected to promote the bilateral trade of both countries and reduce the trade barriers between them; the positive effect on GDP and trade condition will be promoted after signing FTA. Using a measure of commodity composition of trade, that provides insights on the export potential of countries and the bilateral trade possibilities between them, it appears that the Korean-China agreements are likely to have some negative impacts on some industries. The analysis also suggests that in order to take advantage of export possibilities and realize export potential, for both countries involved, the agreements should be carefully reviewed. We are currently introducing the trade similarity index as an explanatory variable in such models. The benefit of doing this, for our interests here, is to find whether countries with export potential have been able to turn that potential into actual exports.
There are three innovations in the paper. The first, complementary relation of trade between China and South Korea was analyzed comprehensively on the base of re-classifying products according to technological content. The second, from the perspective of FTA's effects on the bilateral trade patterns and intra-industry trade, this paper proved the win-win effect from the establishment of Sion-South Korea Free Trade Area. The third, the paper analyzed the microeconomic effects on Chinese Auto industry by comparing the competitiveness of industries and identifying sensitive items.
Alternative Title
Research on The Expected Economic Effects of Korea-China FTA
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조선대학교 대학원
일반대학원 무역학과
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목 차


제1장 서론 1

제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1

제2절 연구의 방법 및 구성 2

제2장 이론적 연구 및 FTA 추진현황 4

제1절 선행연구 검토 4
1. 국내연구 4
2. 국외연구 5

제2절 FTA 체결의 경제적 효과 6
1. 정태적 효과 6
2. 동태적 효과 8

제3절 한·중 FTA 추진현황 분석 10
1. 세계주요국의 FTA 추진현황 10
2. 한·중 FTA 필요성 15
3. 한·중 FTA 추진현황 16

제3장 한·중 교역현황 26

제1절 한·중 양국의 교역현황 26
1. 세계무역에서 한·중 양국의 비중 26
2. 한·중 교역현황 및 투자현황 27

제2절 한·중 제조업의 교역 및 특징 38
1. 한·중 제조업의 특징 38
2. 한·중 제조업의 교역현황 41

제3절 한 ·중 자동차 산업현황 및 관세구조 44
1. 한·중 자동차 산업현황 44
2. 한·중 자동차 산업의 교역과 투자현황 49
3. 한·중 자동차 산업관세구조 비교 51

제4장 한·중 제조업의 경쟁력 분석 53

제1절 한·중 경쟁력 분석 53
1. 한·중 무역 결합도 53
2. 무역특화지수 57
3. 현시비교우위지수 및 분석 62
4. 한·중 제조업부문의 분석에 대한 종합검토 66

제2절 한·중 자동차 경쟁력 분석 69
1. 민감 품목의 선정과 현황 69
2. 한·중 자동차 민감품목 경쟁력 분석 71
3. 한·중 자동차 양국 무역특화지수와 현시비교우위 지수 비교분석 73

제5장 한·중 FTA의 추진시 주요쟁점 및 대응방안 80

제1절 한·중 FTA 추진시 예상되는 주요쟁점 80
1. 제조업분야의 주요 쟁점 80
2. 자동차산업의 주요 쟁점 81
3. 무역규범분야의 주요 쟁점 82

제2절 한·중 FTA의 대응방안 85
1. 제조업분야 대응방안 85
2. 자동차산업의 대응방안 90
제6장 결론 및 시사점 93

참고문헌 96

감사의 글 103
조선대학교 대학원
손학가. (2010). 한·중 FTA 체결에 따른 경제적 효과 분석.
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