중국과 한국의 자유무역협정 체결의 경제적 효과 분석

Abstract

The object of this study is to analyze economic effect resulted from conclusion of FTA agreement between Korea and China. These days multilateralism and localism coexist and prosper in the world economy, and localization through local trade agreement is deepening. After East Asia's economic crisis, integration trend of the regional economies are getting obvious in Northeast of Asia, too. Especially, Korea and China, which have not yet concluded even one FTA agreement despite being WTO members, came to make share plans of joining multilateralism. Although there is a discussion about FTA of Korea with China and Japan. But the conclusion of FTA between the two countries is also important. Thus, I would like to progress the study of FTA between Korea and China. Korea's economy developed due to trade. Korea, whose reliance on trade is high, can confront a new turning point throughout the conclusion of FTA agreement. Especially, if Korea and China conclude an FTA agreement, both countries can get more profits from their partners than other areas, because the size of trade between two countries is growing more and more, and proportion of trade is high to each other since China's reformed and open. In order to analyze how FTA between Korea and China influence on each other, I used CGE( Computable General Equilibrium) model which is based on the database information of GTAP Version 5, and examined the macro economic effect. The most important thing in conclusion of FTA is tariff, that is to say, to revitalize trade by abolishing tariff or phaseout of tariff throughout negotiation. Considering sensitive part, I classified both countries' industries to more than 10 subdivided parts to study in this thesis. Actually, the most sensitive field of both countries' industries is agriculture. In case that both countries lower the tariff by 100%, Korea and China each has profitable parts and loss parts together. This thesis show that positive effect and negative effect coexist at the same time when the tariff is cut down. However, it indirectly show that social welfare's increase and economic expectation effect accompany GDP increase and improvement of terms of transaction, and it also shows that the trade barrier between Korea and China need to be deregulated or abolished. It was indicated that if both countries conclude FTA agreement to abolish tariff, the levels of both countries' welfare go up. Therefore, G에 increase and terms of transaction are improved. Based on industrial classification, in China the trade balance of agriculture varies the most, and in Korea the textile and petrochemical industries have the most changes in the trade balance. Although statical analysis has a limit, we can learn that if both countries conclude FTA agreement, the trade between them increases and get advantages in the complementary fields throughout each country's superiority. However, for FTA agreement can not be concluded in short term, both countries should actually consider a lot of other things following this subject and have many problems to solve. I think that, based on this conclusion, both Korea and China should actively progress actual examination about conclusion of FTA agreement to jion multiaterlism sooner or later, and should cope with the changes of world economy and multilateralism.