부동산투자의 위험관리에 관한 연구

Abstract

Investment in real estate is different form that in stocks or bonds. The former is more like long-term basis, expecting profits of capital or developments for it as well as requiring much capital. However, it is highly risky. Sharp decrease in land price after IMF and that of yield rate caused by vacant office for rent shows the loss in the principle or risk of investment. For the investment of real estate, there are the direct way to invest and the indirect way to invest. The first one is to invest developing real estate as product or operating the existing real estate or developed one. The other is to invest providing funds for developers and operators to real estate finance. Real estate has been recognized as the safest asset, but as shown in plummeting prices of land during the economic crisis, the days have gone when the real estate was cited as safe investment. Once economy goes beyond high growth stage, investment in real estate has to be made in consideration of profitability like any other investment. With regard to investment in real estate expected to emerge as important social issue according to changes in economic situation, the study aims to create environment that can induce investment in real estate by systematically analyzing all theories related to real estate investment and analyze profit and risk of the real estate investment by examining decision-making process related to investment in stage so that it can figure out correlation between real estate investment earing rate and risk through recognition of risk pooling, composition of real estate portfolio and importance of analysis of environment of investment, This study presents the major risk factors in the real estate investment and management. We analyze the effect of the systemic risk factors, in particular major macroeconomic variables, on the return on the real estate investment. As previous studies showed, lagged industrial production has a consistent positive effect. Bit inflation, whether it is expecter or not, has depressing influence. Furthermore, economic uncertain쇼 measured by the conditional variance from GARCH model or risk premium in bond markets has also negative effect on the real estate investment. In effect, the real estate investment in Korea is insufficient vehicle in hedging against the inflation and the economic uncertainty. This study concludes with a risk-management guideline in the real estate investment and management.