디지털經濟의 巨視經濟的 效果에 관한 硏究

Abstract

With the information technology sector leading the way, we have seen that U.S. economy has enjoyed decade-long booming period. This is the so-called New Economy or Digital Economy: faster economic growth and lower inflation. Now, most corporate executives and policy maker all over the world have taken this lesson to heart. With Digital Economy, we can say we have a new source of wealth: Intangibles. Now, intangibles such as intellectual property, talent, brands, and network are becoming the biggest source of wealth. To accumulate this new source of wealth, the old economy players must convert their firms/industries/countries in order to adapt to the Global New Economy by liberalization, mobilizing the capital, and digitalization. The result will be New economy, New market structure, New industry structure, and New corporate structures. In other words, we expect whole new industry structure and corporate structure under Digital Economy. How is this possible? It could be done by reducing interaction coats among suppliers, customers, firms, retailers, wholesalers, and financial institutions. We have already experienced the cost-down and realized that digitalization, networking, liberalization, all of these factors contributed to the rapid reduction of costs. Only the companies and industries that use Information Technology to boost productivity at every stage of the business process will survive Digital Economy. For corporations, the most important justification for spending big money on information technology is that it supports restructuring and cost-cutting in order to survive Digital Economy. From a global perspective, a critical benefit of Digital Economy is that for the first time it makes data available worldwide. Historically it has taken several years, if not decades, for even the most important technological and business innovations to spread across national borders. The above strategies are general strategies, and then what will be the Korea specific strategies in order to and enjoy Digital Economy? Many analysts agree that Korea is far ahead of other Asian countries as far as the development of Digital Economy is concerned. But Korea must still spend plenty to reach the critical mass needed for a Digital Economy takeoff. Nor has Korea brought stability to its financial sector and banking system, the circulatory system of any economy old or new, i.e. Digital. This is macro level strategy toward Digital Economy. At micro level, 'digital or die' mentality and resulting expansion of an Internet economy should break through decades of deeply entrenched business practices. Even though there exists some moral hazard problem of a few venture capitalists, the venture capital should be encouraged and expanded. And venture firms should learn the survival strategy by active, productive and efficient M＆A. Another bottleneck to Digital Economy is shortage of IT labor. To increase the supply of IT labor, the government should allow the increase in the number of enrollment college, and import of foreign labor. Accordingly, this report investigated the background and characteristics of Digital Economy, analyzed the changes in economic activities and effect in detail, and finally proposed several corresponding strategies for the application in Korea. In these viewpoints, this study analyzes effect that Digital Economy gets to the digital divide, and analyzes in priority macro-economical effect that Digital Economy gets to economic growth, employment, and prices. On these analyses, this study aim to search for the development of the Digital Economy. For an empirical analysis on this paper, firstly, the Digital Economy has affect on existence of the digital divide through that calculate the digital Gini-index, and this paper execute the cointegration tests of EG(Engle and Granger) and GPH(Geweke and Poter-Hudak) fractional difference for that evidence the stationary of model about economic growth, employment, and prices. Also, this paper is to prove that the production and investment of IT industry are the exogenous variables of the economic growth, employment, and prices through the variance decomposition of forecasting error. On the bases of above the analysis, this paper deduce to how responds to the endogenous variables(the economic growth, employment, and prices etc.) by the impulse of exogenous variable. The statistical data is used the quarterly data from 1997:1 through 2004:4. in KOSIS. Influenced by the positive influence of Digital Economy, national economy can also keep growing and employment will be improved by virtue of emerging new industry. As for the negative aspects in Digital Economy, the difference between the poor and the rich in accessing knowledge and information will be aggravated. In addition, the anti-functions of Digital Economy including hacking, illegal abuse of private information, and disturbing communication network caused by information application can be seriously spreaded. The hypothesis of fractional cointegration raises the problem of testing for fractional integration. In this paper, a spectral regression-based test due to Geweke and Porter-Hudak(GPH) was used to deter fractional integration in the equilibrium error. The GPH test provides a general test for fractional integration that is not dependent on nuisance parameters of the underlying process. The GPH test was performed to check for fractional integration in the individual series. The GPH test statistics could not reject the Ⅰ(1) hypothesis. The GPH test for cointegration was next performed. The results vaned little across the different values of powers under consideration. The results showed that all of the estimates of d lie between 0 and 1, suggesting possible fractional integration behavior. Moreover, results of formal hypothesis testing indicated significant evidence of d＜1 in all cases. In the result of the variance decomposition, the innovations will in general be correlated, reflecting common effects of fundamental shocks. This paper orthogonalizes these innovations using Choleski decomposition of the residual covariance matrix. This strategy imposes a recursive, or triangular, structure on the contemporaneous relationship among the variables. The variance decompositions this paper reports are based upon the orthogonalized innovations. Given the nature of the orthogonalization, the variance decompositions may be sensitive to the ordering of the variables in the Choleski decomposition if the residual covariance matrix is non-diagonal. At long horizons, IT production was shown to be endogenous to the economic growth, employment, and inflation. In conclusion, the first priority as corresponding strategies for Digital Economy in Korea should be placed on the early establishment of ultra high speed information communication network and infrastructure for proper transportation of knowledge and information including appropriate education. Next, a small and efficient government, as well as industrialization strategies in digital business and knowledge based information for digital management, should also be secured. In addition, it is necessary to prepare measures to reduce the difference in wealth due to unfair accessing chance to knowledge and information.