韓國 自動車産業의 發展方案에 관한 硏究

Abstract

본 연구는 세계자동차산업의 환경변화와 우리 자동차산업의 현황과 문제점을 살펴보고, 자동차산업이 한국경제에서 차지하는 역할과 그 중요성에 비추어 지금까지 정량화에 치우친 논의를 탈피하여 기술적으로 상호연관된 전산업의 체계 내에서 생산, 고용, 수출입 등에 대한 파급 및 유발효과를 파악하기 위하여, 자동차산업에 대한 산업연관분석을 실시한다. 이와 동시에 한국 자동차산업이 수출에 차지하는 역할과 중요성을 외화가득률 등의 도출을 통해 재확인하며, 자동차수출모형에 대한 시계열분석의 결과에서 나타난 시사점을 도출하고, 이를 토대로 한국 자동차산업의 발전방안을 모색하여 이 분야의 정책수립을 위한 기초자료를 제공하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 수행하였다. 이와 같은 목적으로 진행된 본 연구의 결과 자동차산업은 1990~95년간에는 타산업을 상회하는 성장을 보였으나, 1995~2000년간에는 성장이 약간 둔화되었다. 그러나 자동차산업이 타산업에 미치는 생산파급효과가 높아 국민경제 성장에 높은 기여도를 보였다. 즉, 전산업평균에 비해, 생산유발계수와 영향력계수는 매우 높았으나 고용유발계수와 수입유발계수는 비슷했다. 감응도계수는 자동차부분품은 매우 높은 수치를 보였으나, 그 외 자동차 산업에서는 낮은 수치로 나타났다. 실증분석결과에서 나타난 시사점을 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 자동차산업은 그간 기업내 연구개발에 힘입어 중간투입의 비중이 높은 자동차부분품 및 자동차용 엔진의 국산화는 상당히 진전을 보였으나 자동차의 고급화 추세에 따라 음향기기와 치장재의 수입의존도가 높다는 사실이다. 따라서 자동차산업의 대외의존도를 낮추기 위해 기술개발 못지않게 자동차 디자인 및 설계 등의 소프트웨어에 대한 지원대책이 보다 강화되어야 할 것이다. 수입재 중간투입율의 상승은 화물차부문에서 특히 두드러졌으나 여타 부문에서도 모두 나타나는 현상이었다. 또한 이 분야는 상대적으로 부가가치가 높으므로 경제성장에의 기여도를 더욱 높일 수 있음을 의미하기도 한다. 둘째, 1990년 및 1995년과 IMF 이후인 2000년을 비교하면, 자동차산업의 부채비율은 현저하게 감소하였고, 또한 내수 및 투자의 비중이 감소하고 수출비중이 증가하는 구조변화가 나타나고 있다. 이는 내수보다도 자동차수출이 자동차산업의 성장에 주도적 역할을 하고 있으므로, 자동차산업에 대하여 지속적인 해외시장의 다변화를 위한 정책적 고려가 필요함을 시사해 주고 있다. 셋째, 수출함수의 도출을 위한 시계열분석 결과 수출에 있어 세계 수입물량에 대한 탄력성이 높다는 것은 세계경기가 회복되고 이에 따라 세계 자동차 수입수요가 증가할 경우 수출물량이 급격히 늘 수 있다는 것을 의미한다. 이는 한국 자동차산업의 미래에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다. 이와 같은 시사점으로부터 한국 자동차산업의 발전방안으로 정부에서는 기술개발과 생산 및 전문기술인력의 육성을 위한 정책지원의 실시와, 자동차업체의 역할로는 브랜드가치를 제고하고 글로벌 생산체제를 구축하여 판매망을 확충하고 수출시장의 다변화 등을 꾀하여야 한다는 것을 제시하였다.|Korea's automobile industry became automobile-making country of world 5th rank that possess independent model in relatively short period within about 40 years. Automobile industry is a major industry of modern industrial economies, setting the standard of a nation's economic and technological capability. The industry contributes tremendously to a country's overall economic growth and job creation, and it has a very large linkage effect so that its growth has a strong impact on the development of other industries. Currently, global automobile industry is facing a stiff competition with regard to developing future technology. To reduce a massive R&D costs needed in developing the new technologies, such as lowest environmental pollution engine, electric automobile, fuel battery, etc., and to achieve benefit of economies of scale, merger & acquisition and strategic alliances have been continuously made all over the world. This thesis examines environment change of world automobile industry and present condition of Korean automobile industry and problem, and to grasp far-reaching and inductive effect about production, service, import and export etc. within whole industries' systems interconnected technologically, because automobile industry escapes part and discussion that have leaned in quantification in the light of the importance occupying in Korea economic, execute industry connection test about automobile industry. Do by purpose of study that reaffirms role and importance that at the same time Korean automobile industry occupies in export, through deduction of foreign exchange earning rate etc.., and forecasts future of export market, through time series analysis and gropes development plan of Korean automobile industry on the basis of this and supplies basic data for policy-making of this field. This paper used input-output analysis. The rationale for input-output analysis is that the output of the automobile industry is needed as an input in many other industries, or even for the automobile industry itself; therefore the correct level of automobile output will depend on the input requirements of all the related industries. In turn, the output of many other industries will enter into the automobile industry as inputs, and consequently the correct levels of the other products will in turn depend partly upon the input requirements of the automobile industry. In view of this interindustry dependence, any set of correct output levels for the related industries must be one that is consistent with all the input requirements in the economy, so that no bottlenecks will arise anywhere. In this light, it is clear that input-output analysis should be of great use in production planning. Also, the export demand in this paper is modelled as a function of exchange rate, industrial production index, and export price. I first examine the univariate time-series properties of the series by testing whether the series are stationary or not. Existence of unit root means that a series is not stationary. Two tests are conducted to determine the existence of unit roots in the series. The number of lags entering the estimated equation is determined on the performance of the Lagrange multiplier test for serial correlation. It is clear that we cannot reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables at the 5 percent significance level. All of the statistics indicate that the first differences of the variables are stationary. Therefore, it is concluded that the variables are nonstationary in levels and stationary in differences. Based on this result, I test whether variables are cointegrated or whether there is an equilibrium relationship between them. The next step in the test for cointegration is to estimate the cointegrating regressions and to conduct unit root tests upon the residuals from these regressions. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test procedure is used to test for the presence of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegrating regression. The lag length is chosen to be shortest for which, using the Box-Ljung Q-statistic, the hypothesis of white noise of the residuals cannot be rejected at the 5 percent significance level. The results show that the null hypothesis of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration cannot be rejected at the 5 percent level. In order to implement the Johansen procedure, a lag length must be chosen for the VAR, and the orders of integration of the series entering the VAR must be determined. My procedure for choosing the optimal lag length was to test down from a general 12-lag system until reducing the order of the VAR by 1 lag could be rejected using a likelihood ratio statistic. The residuals from the chosen VAR were then checked for whiteness. If the residuals in any question proved to be nonwhite, I sequentially chose a higher lag structure until they were whitened. In all cases the hypothesis of no cointegrating vector can be rejected at the 5 percent level. I also make use of impulse response functions(IRF) to get additional information regarding the responses of the variables to the shocks in the other variable. These impulse response functions show the effect of a one standard deviation shock applied to one of the equations, on both the short and long-run responses of all variables in the system. Exports respond positively to the shock in exchange rate in the first place and then the responses decayed slowly. As have discussed, Korean automobile industry is very big contribution to job creation, income enlargement and foreign exchange earning rate through export etc. Automobile industry was looked growth that exceed calculation household mascot at 1990~1995 years in analysis result of this study, but growth was slowed some at 1995~2000 years. But, because automobile industry was high production ripple effect on calculation household mascot, high contribution was seen in national economy growth. That is, this paper than whole industry average, production induction coefficient and index of the power of dispersion were very high but employment induction coefficient and import inducement coefficient were similar. Index of the sensitivity of dispersion car parts very high shame see, but was expose by low numerical value in any automobile industry. It can be derived the following suggestions of Korean automobile industry. First, localization of High car parts and automobile engine of weight of middle injection was shown development fairly because automobile industry owes in research and development in meantime enterprise but it is truth that rate of dependence on imports of sound device and embellishment products according to the high automobile class trends. Therefore, car design and support countermeasure for software of design etc., may have to be solidified more such as technical development to lower outside dependence of automobile industry. Rising of the income product rate of intermediate goods was phenomenon that was specially notable in freight car class but appears all in other class. Also, this field means that can heighten more contribution to economic growth because added value is high relatively. Second, compare 1990, 1995 and 2000 being since IMF, debt ratio of automobile industry decreased remarkably, and also domestic demand and density of investment decrease and structure change that export weight increases is appearing. This is previewing that political consideration need for diversification of overseas market that is continuous about automobile industry, because car export is doing leading part in growth of automobile industry than domestic demand. Third, the elasticity about world import volume is high in time series analysis for deduction of export function and export, which means that export volume can proliferate in case of world business conditions gets back and world car income demand increases accordingly. This estimates that exert positive influence on future of Korean automobile industry. Although world car demand was influenced by advanced nation, mainly until late 1990s. It is because additional demand extension may be available gradually by Chinese high growth rate and least developed among developing country's industrialization. With the present condition and problem of Korean automobile industry and suggestions in empirical analysis result, the plan of Korean automobile industry can be derived as follows. Government have to support for technical development and production and professional skilled technical hands' upbringing of enforce should. Car company's role presented that must raises brand value and constructs global production system and expands sales network and plans diversification back of export market.