韓國 人口高齡化가 經濟成長에 미치는 影響

Abstract

우리나라의 인구고령화는 OECD 국가들에 비해 높은 것은 아니지만 그 진행속도가 선진국에 비해 매우 빠르다는 데 그 심각성이 있다. 인구의 고령화는 경제 전반에 걸쳐 광범한 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되므로, 경제 전체의 시각에서 각 부문 간에 상호 일관된 종합적인 대응정책을 수립할 필요가 있다. 이러한 정책 수립에서는 한국의 제도적 특수성이 고려되어야 하며, 이를 위해서는 고령화의 부문별 파급효과에 대한 엄밀한 분석이 요구된다. 또한 고령화 현상 그 자체에 대해서도 보다 심층적으로 이해할 필요가 있다. 인구 고령화는 경제 전반에 걸쳐 광범위한 경제적 영향을 미친다. 고령인구비율 증가로 인한 저축률의 하락은 경제성장에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 고령인구 증가에 따라 연금제도와 건강보험의 지급부담은 증가할 것이며, 복지·후생 측면에서 새로운 재정수요가 발생하여 재정적자의 요인이 된다. 금융부문에서도 고령화가 진행되는 과정에서는 노후대비 저축과 연기금이 증대하여 자산시장의 변화를 가져온다. 또한 노동시장에서도 생산활동인구의 감소로 인한 노동공급의 축소와 노동력마저 연령구조가 고령화되어 경제성장을 둔화시키는 한 요인으로 작용할 것이다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구는 먼저 우리나라 고령화의 현황과 그 경제적 문제점을 살펴보고, 인구고령화의 경제적 효과에 관련한 선행연구를 고찰하여 모형을 설정하고, 이에 대한 실증분석을 통해 도출된 결과를 토대로 하여 고령화에 대한 정책방안을 제시하는 데 연구목적이 있다. 이러한 연구목적으로 진행된 본 논문의 요지는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 고령화의 진전은 노동력의 공급을 축소시킬 가능성이 높을 뿐 아니라 노동력인구의 연령구조 자체를 고령화시킬 것으로 예상된다. 노동력 공급의 축소는 경제성장의 둔화, 조세수입의 감소, 사회보장기여금의 감소 등을 초래하고 재정수지 악화 요인으로 작용할 가능성이 크다. 노동력의 고령화는 지식기반경제의 도래로 인해 지식과 기술의 중요성이 더욱 부각될 뿐 아니라 지식과 기술이 급속하게 발전할 것을 감안하여 향후 국가경쟁력의 약화, 경제의 역동성 저하 등을 초래할 가능성이 높다. 둘째, 고령화의 진전은 저축률의 하락을 통해 투자의 위축 및 경제성장의 둔화를 초래할 가능성이 크고, 저위험자산을 선호하는 노인인구 비중을 증가시킴으로써 자산의 배분구조에 변동을 초래할 가능성이 크다. 뿐만 아니라 노동력 공급의 축소로 인한 자본수익률의 하락이 우려되기 때문에 적정한 노후소득의 보장이 위협을 받게 될 가능성이 크다. 동시에 자본시장에서 연금기금의 비중이 증대됨에 따라 기관투자자로서 내부자거래, 주주권익 보호 등에 보다 적극적인 역할을 수행함으로써 기업의 수익성 제고 및 지배구조 개선에 기여할 가능성도 있다. 셋째, 노동공급의 축소, 저축률의 하락을 통한 자본스톡 증가율의 둔화 등은 경제성장을 둔화시킬 가능성이 크다. 경제성장의 둔화는 삶의 질을 저하시킬 뿐 아니라 재정수지의 악화 등을 통해 고령화의 다른 악영향들을 가중시킬 가능성이 있다. 고령화의 진전은 연금, 의료, 교육, 노인복지 등 재정지출을 증가시키는 압력으로 작용하는 반면 생산활동인구의 감소를 통해 조세수입 및 사회보장기여금의 하락을 통해 재정수지를 악화시킬 가능성이 크다. 이와 같이 고령화의 영향은 지속적인 성장을 유지하는 데 장애요인으로 작용할 가능성이 크기 때문에 이러한 영향들을 완화하기 위한 적극적인 대책이 필요하다. 노동공급의 감소가 경제성장의 둔화, 연금재정의 악화, 통합재정수지의 악화, 국가부채의 누적 등을 초래하기 때문에 고령화의 경제적인 영향은 노동공급의 축소로부터 출발한다고 해도 과언이 아니라는 점은 이미 상술하였다. 따라서 가장 근본적인 고령화 대책은 근로유인 제고를 통해 노동공급 감소를 둔화시키고 이와 같은 노동공급을 흡수할 수 있는 수요를 창출해 나가는 것이라고 볼 수 있다.|In the next few years, the world will see dramatic transformations in how people consume and buy. These changes will be brought about by gradual aging of the population. Generation, combined with longer life expectancies, will place extraordinary pressures on the economic resources necessary to sustain the rising standard of living that most people have come to expect. The nation will become what is termed as an aged society in 2022 when the number of Koreans aged 65 or over will account for more than 14 percent of the total population, according to a report by the Korea Development Institute(KDI). Korea’s transition from an aging society, which the nation entered in 1999, to an aged society will take 23 years, the shortest period in the world. The United Nations defines a country as an aging society when the number of its senior citizens aged 65 or more will surpass 7 percent of the whole population. As a comparison, it took 115 years for France, 65 years for Sweden, 45 years for the United Kingdom and Germany, and 26 years for Japan. The United States is projected to become an aged society in 2020, a transition of 75 years. The prediction coincides with a similar warning by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) that Korea is on the verge of entering an aged society unless the Korean government takes appropriate measures. In its report on the implementation of a retirement pension system, which KDI made at the request from the Ministry of Labor Affairs, the institute forecast that every three to four people aged between 16 and 64, who are considered as economically viable workers, would have to support an aged citizen in 2030, compared with the 10 to 1 ratio registered last year. The KDI forecast that by 2050 the nation would catch up with Japan and the Czech Republic as the country with the highest elderly to dependent ratio if the present population trends remain unchanged. The main reason why this ratio is worsening is the rapid decline in the workforce due to a low birth rate and rising job insecurity caused by continuing economic difficulties facing Korea. Other reasons include the fact that Korean males are compelled to work four to five years fewer than their counterparts in other countries because of their longer education system and compulsory military service. The Federation of Korean Industries(FKI) also warned that the national economy is showing signs of premature aging since the foreign exchange crisis battered the country in November 1997. According to the FKI report, the booming period of the national economy is getting shorter, whereas the slumping period is getting longer. The potential economic growth rate is expected to fall to a 4 percent level this year, lower than the world’s average growth for the second consecutive year. We can also witness such symptoms of premature aging in the main force of workers in the manufacturing industry, which has changed from those in their 30s to those in their 40s during the past decade. The number of Korean products ranking as the world’s best goods has been on a steady decline for the 10th consecutive year, showing a lack of their international competitiveness. Since 1970, the nation has achieved a high year-on-year growth of 7 percent on average. The economic volume also posted a whopping 264-fold increase based on the gross domestic product (GDP) during the past 34 years. While enjoying the uninterrupted high economic growth in the past, most people seem to have possessed a fixed conception that the national economy is to expand continuously and the share of distribution from a booming economy becomes greater. The economic growth rate could fall anytime, slashing the people’s share of distribution and income. In fact, the pleasant era of a high economic growth seems to have ended in the country. Rather, the national economy is now suffering from a number of serious difficulties, including the fastest aging phenomenon of the population in the world, a steep fall in the potential economic growth rate, a high unemployment rate and sluggish facility investment, which has remained unchanged for the eighth successive year. The aging of the population is expected to result in substantial increases in the costs of maintaining health care and pension programs, and that is a source of widespread concern. However, a proper assessment requires that attention be given to all categories of government expenditure, including education and others associated with younger age groups, and not just those associated with the older population. It requires also that privately provided goods and services be considered, since their costs must be charged against the same national income as publicly provided ones. Beyond that, it is important to recognize that population change affects not only the demand side of the economy, but also the supply side -- the economy's productive capacity. An important conclusion is that while other influences will no doubt play a role, demographic effects by themselves are likely to cause government expenditure (all categories, all levels of government combined) to increase by no more than the rate of growth of the population, and by less than the rate of growth of the gross domestic product. Taking public and private costs together, and assigning appropriate weights to different age groups, the overall "dependency ratio" can be expected to remain at its current low level for another decade and a half or two decades, and then to rise as the baby boom generation retires in large numbers. However, the projected future ratio never reaches the levels of the 1950s and 1960s. Although the overall "burden" of population aging is manageable, major adjustments will be required in the coming decades, especially in the area of federal/provincial cost sharing. For the most part, though, the effects of population aging are predictable, slow, and some time off. This aging phenomenon will likely cause severe social crisis in developed countries. As the young population decreases, the population segment able to contribute to economic growth is decreasing. Economic growth is expected to decline as work-age population decreases. This paper warns that economic growth will likely show negative growth from about 2010 in Korea, because economic system needs expanding workforce to maintain growing economy. In addition to the problem caused by a decreasing young population, society will suffer from a proportionate increase in the old population. As the number of old people compared to young people increases, it requires that society should spend more money on welfare, such as pensions and health care. This unbalanced situation of age-structure is driving these developed countries into a corner. The reduction of economically active population and the increase in the burden of welfare cost on the society are causing social crisis which is going to become increasingly difficult to deal with. The world population is aging, which means that the average age is increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the history of civilization. The prolonged graying of the world, with an escalating ratio of elderly to young people, will have profound social, economic, medical, and personal consequences. More importantly, this demographic change will change the face of Korean economic growth.