KOSPI 월봉 챠트를 이용한 변액보험 운용방안에 관한 연구

Abstract

Variable insurance has a fund change right according to kinds of marketable securities and input ratios. Most of the insured have little knowledge on the point of fund change and tend to maintain the kinds of the first-intended fund. In this case, as in ‘2008 sub-prime mortgage’, when global stock markets and domestic stock markets have a sharp break, the deposits of variable insurance that the insured have saved may fall. It indicates that purposed funds or ageing funds may be exposed to a considerable risk. How the insured can change funds without help from experts to avoid risk and achieve stable management of variable insurance and whether anyone can understand and judge how to use it without professional knowledge on it are important. Therefore, this study aims to prevent sudden fall of the fund for ageing or the purposed fund. This study will follow markets trends as prediction of stock markets is impossible, and intends to make fund change of variable insurance easy according to whether monthly income of the last month was positive or negative. If it can be done, opinions of the investors are not reflected at all and according to the judgement that the last monthly income was positive and stock price will rise, stock input ratio can be raised. If the last monthly income was negative, it is judged that stock price will fall and stock input ratio will be decreased. It is easy and simple. No serious efforts are needed. Whether the stock price of the last month is positive or negative is just judged. Results are presented through a simulation of which one is better in the following cases: when the results are compared with profit rates from lending rate of 5% for the past 20 years and when they are compared with the results of the 20-year investment of KOSPI Exchange Traded Fund(stock input ratio of 100%). In conclusion, this study focused on finding a useful model for risk control to avoid high risk ways and sudden fall of markets rather than to pursue for maximum profits in a short-term. Therefore, if the insured who have no knowledge on investment cam avoid risks pursuing profits easily, it is suggested that it will be helpful for preparation for ageing fund and purposed funds. However, this study compared the results of variable insurance with KOSPI profit ratios using only monthly income chart. It is assumed that investment is made to KOSPI index when the variable insurance is changed into stock type insurance and we can not judge which one is better when it is compared with other indexes. In considering that insurance companies manage variable insurance products based on KOSPI 200, we should reconsider how profit ratio will change when investment is made to KOSPI 200 based on fund change according to Candle Chart.