환율변동과 대미 수출․입과의 관계분석

Abstract

A Relationship Analysis on the Exchange Rate Fluctuation with Export and Import between Korea and America.

Jung, JIn-Eup Advisor : Prof. Oh, Sung-Dong, Ph.D. Department of Industrial Economics Graduate School of Business Administration Chosun University

For the country which heavily depends on foreign trade like Korea, as influences change in exchange rate has on economy are very great, there have been lots of studies on influences that adjustment of exchange rate has on export and import. Also, there have been many attempts to achieve the political goals through intervention in foreign exchange market. Therefore, this study positively demonstrated effects of risk according to floating of exchange rate on import and export. This is the summary of the results obtained from a regression analysis and a correlation analysis on the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on import and export from January 1995 to September 2004: In respect to the regression analysis of export (from January 1995 to September 2004), first, it was demonstrated that increase of exchange rate caused decrease of export. Rather, it was found that the industry production index of U.S.A. had a positive influence on export of our country. Second, in respect to import (from January 1995 to September 2004), increase of exchange rate caused decrease of import, and in reverse, the industry production index of U.S.A. had a positive influence on import of our country. The main result of correlation analysis is presented as follows: first, when an analysis of the entire period was conducted, exchange rate, import and export showed a low or midium correlation. Rather, the industry production index maintained a high correlation with import and export. Second, when the period of the economic crisis was targeted (from July 1997 to December 1998), exchange rate, import and export showed more than midium level of correlation. Third, when the period after the economic crisis (December 1998 to November 2000) was targeted, exchange rate, export and import showed a negative correlation. To maintain a stable won-dollar exchange rate and remove factors that disturb foreign exchange markets such as speculative transfer of short-term capital and speculation, our country needs a proper exchange rate policy. Also, export industry should acquire advanced banking systems to avoid exchange risks such as currency option, currency futures, and currency swap and make every effort to activate those banking goods. As we depend on dollars for import and export settlement , we need every efforts for internationalization of home currency.