기후변화를 반영한 가능최대풍속 산정

Abstract

Extreme wind speed could be obtained by application of a Monte Carlo simulation, followed by formation of a representative standard typhoon. By applying this method, the data about severe typhoon happened early of 1900s, could be restored and added to RSMC data set. As estimating wind speed which has a million year of return period about the well-structured data set, probable maximum wind which could be applied to design important facilities such as a nuclear power plant. Furthermore, regarding to strength of typhoon getting stronger which replies on global warming, climate change was also applied with the status of increasing typhoon intensity. This research was applied to Mokpo for estimating probable maximum wind speed. The result from the given research method showed that it is weaker than 55m/s which is wind speed of probable maximum wind of super typhoon even though the central pressure intensity increases 30%.