인구감소가 병역제도에 미치는 사회적 인식 연구

Abstract

A Study of Social Perceptions of Population Decline and the Military Service System - Focusing on Text Mining and Social Network Analysis Using Big Data - Kim, Dong Hun Advisor: Prof. Kim, Beob Heon, Ph.D. Department of Military Science, Graduate School of Chosun University South Korea faces a significant challenge with its declining population and low birth rates, which are notably affecting military service resources. This demographic shift is posing serious concerns for the armed forces, leading to discussions about alternatives to the existing conscription system to address the manpower shortfall. This study focuses on the social perception of the Korean military service system in relation to population decline. It aims to analyze the characteristics, changes, and implications of these perceptions. The recent social structural changes, along with the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterize an era of Big Data, marked by high-speed and hyper-connectivity. This Big Data reflects a wide range of comprehensive discourses and perceptions in society. Thus, this research used Big Data-based text mining and social network analysis techniques, deemed the best methods for empirically and objectively analyzing above-mentioned social perceptions. The study employed a qualitative method in the theoretical discussion phase. This phase encompasses a comprehensive review of the phenomenon of population decline, the military service system, and the theoretical underpinnings of Big Data analysis. In the analysis phase, a sequential mixed-design research methodology was adopted, blending quantitative methods with Big Data analysis. This approach was chosen to effectively combine theoretical insights with empirical data analysis, thereby providing a well-rounded examination of the interplay between population dynamics and perceptions of the military service system. This study was initiated with a focus on the following research questions, aiming to discuss the discourse surrounding South Korea's military service system in the context of population decline: First, what are the characteristics of the social perceptions in the South Korean society regarding ‘population decline and the military service system’?; second, what are the changes in these social perceptions?; third, what are the implications of these social perceptions? To answer these research questions concerning the characteristics, changes, and implications of social perceptions related to the transformation of the military service system due to population decline, this study set its analytical focus on the past 15 years, from 2008 to 2022. This period marks when the phenomenon of population decline began to emerge as a significant social issue. The timeframe was divided into three intervals of five years each, during which a total of 34,598 items of Big Data were collected, including media reports and data from major domestic and international portals related to population decline and the military service system. This study employed Big Data analysis techniques, specifically text mining and social network analysis to extract relevant key words and topics out of the collected data. This approach facilitated a comprehensive understanding of the evolving social discourse surrounding the military service system in the context of demographic changes. The text mining technique in this study centered around the use of weighted TF-IDF (Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency) values. This method involved extracting the top 50 TF-IDF value keywords for each interval and for each media type analyzed. Additionally, based on these findings, 1-mode matrix data was created for conducting social network analysis. Further analysis with text mining involved using LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic modeling to identify three main topics and their associated keywords. This topic analysis was instrumental in understanding the underlying themes within the data. The primary results of this study are as follows. First, the results from the first interval data revealed that: ① there was a high correlation between the phenomenon of population decline and the military service system; ② discussions related to gender within the context of the military service system were prominently featured; ③ there was significant social interest in the duration of military service; and ④ keywords related to neighboring countries in the context of the security environment of the Korean Peninsula were identified. Second, the results from the second interval data showed that: ① the keyword ‘women’ held significant weight in the network's semantic structure; ② discussions and social interest related to ‘voluntary enlistment’ emerged; ③ there was noticeable social interest in changes to the military service exemption and alternative service systems; and ④ a strong connection was observed among keywords surrounding ‘population’, military manpower, and the reduction of military service resources. Third, the analysis of the third interval data yielded the following results: ① specific alternatives for transforming the military service system were discussed in light of the intensifying population decline crisis, particularly centering on the keywords ‘voluntary enlistment’ and ‘women’; ② social interest in the aspect of fairness related to the military service system was identified; ③ the keyword ‘change’ emerged as a significant new factor in the analysis, holding considerable weight in the network's semantic structure; ④ a strong connection among keywords related to military service exemptions and alternative service was observed, forming clusters with similar attributes. Synthesizing these findings revealed that social perceptions regarding the military service system in response to population decline over the past 15 years in South Korea have primarily revolved around discussions on expanding women's participation in military service, transitioning to a voluntary enlistment system, and considerations of fairness in military service exemptions and alternatives. Analyzing the characteristics and changes of these key themes and understanding their implications can provide meaningful insights. Therefore, this study focused on three main factors: ‘voluntary enlistment’, ‘women’, and ‘fairness’. The characteristics, changes, and implications of perceptions concerning the military service system centered on these factors are as follows. Firstly, the perception regarding the transition to a voluntary enlistment system was not ranked in the first interval's TF-IDF analysis but emerged as a top-ranked issue from the second interval analysis onward. During the second interval, social concern about the problem of population decline increased, and the issue of insufficient military service resources began to emerge prominently in the context of the military service system. In the third interval, the voluntary enlistment system was discussed as a crucial alternative as the military resources rapidly diminished. South Korean society has been primarily perceiving the voluntary enlistment system as an alternative to the current conscription system among various military service types. The social network analysis of each interval showed a strong connection between keywords related to politics. These characteristics and changes implies that the transition to a voluntary enlistment system has a significant impact on national security and defense. Therefore, it should be discussed as a matter of great importance, moving beyond political gains and interests towards a gradual transition in the context of national security. Secondly, the social perception regarding the expansion of women's participation in military service initially manifested in the first interval as discussions and discourse related to women's voluntary enlistment. In the second interval, the discussions notably shifted towards the topic of women's conscription. During the third interval, as the population decline crisis deepened, the discussion about expanding women's participation in the military service as a concrete alternative to the current system gained significant weight. This led to debates and controversies, often resulting in gender-related conflicts. These characteristics and changes makes it become evident that addressing the shortage of military service resources due to population decline may require a gradual expansion of women's role, following a process of sufficient social consensus. Furthermore, the implications suggest that the imposition of military duties on women should be considered with caution in the long term. Thirdly, discussions regarding the fairness aspect of the military service system primarily focused on the military service exemption and alternative service systems, particularly for specific designated reasons. Keywords related to ‘military service exemptions’, ‘industrial technical personnel’, and ‘abolition’ started ranking high from the second interval, coinciding with the emergence of population decline as a significant issue in South Korean society. In this second interval, there was notable opposition from small and medium-sized enterprises and the science and engineering sectors to the operation and changes in the military service exemption system, leading to sharp conflicts in opinions and interests. During the third interval, as the population decline deepened, controversies arose regarding the appropriateness of applying military service exemptions to individuals in culture, sports, and arts. These characteristics and changes suggest that both external factors like population decline and internal factors such as generational shifts in valuing fairness should guide policy formulation for resolving the shortage of military resources. The implication is that future policies should be framed within the value of 'fairness' that is acceptable to members of society. Additionally, a common thread in these discussions on key issues is the shared implication of 'fairness'. It is cautioned that advocating changes in the military service system as a means to resolve social disagreements and conflicts could lead to a reversal of the fundamental principles. Future changes in the military service system should not be primarily aimed at resolving social conflicts but rather address the inevitable changes in the system due to the phenomenon of population decline in Korean society. The focus should be on maintaining national security as the primary objective. Despite a reduction in size, discussions and discourse should aim at how to smoothly replenish military resources, considering the qualitative improvement of national defense capabilities. This perspective presents the challenge of how to effectively manage military resources in light of these demographic and societal changes, offering significant implications for future policy and strategy development. The following policy implications can be derived from this study First, research on a gradual development plan for a voluntary enlistment system that aligns with South Korea's defense environment is warranted. Second, proactive efforts, such as expanding positions for women's participation in the military, are required. Third, there is a need to advance a military service system and policies that align with the value of fairness. Fourth, there should be a focus on analyzing and converging social opinions and discourses in establishing and implementing policies related to the military service system. Fifth, a systematic restructuring of military personnel through active consideration of unmanned systems and other technological advancements that align with the changing nature of future warfare is necessary. Lastly, efficient utilization and operation of military personnel, including officers and reserve forces, are essential. This study has analyzed the social perceptions related to the transformation of the military service system due to population decline. While previous research on the ‘military service system’ has primarily been qualitative, focusing on case analyses and policy development directions for the system's inherent characteristics and changes, this study significantly extends the scope of existing research. Given the issue of population decline in South Korean society, it is possible to anticipate that a transition point for the future military service system is inevitable. Therefore, proactive preparation and contingency planning are necessary within the rapidly changing social structure and security environment to safeguard our national security. It is expected that the content addressed in this study will contribute positively to the development and transformation of South Korea's military service system. The ultimate goal is a successful transition of the system that can steadfastly maintain national security in the face of continuous provocations and threats from North Korea, thereby establishing a foundation for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. Keywords: Military Service System, Social Perception, Big Data Analysis, Text Mining, Social Network Analysis