환율과 상대가격의 비대칭적 변화가 한국의 가공단계별 수입에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

Considering that ASEAN is emerging as an alternative market for China to respond to the growing uncertainty following the recent US-China trade dispute, it is necessary to study how Korea-China-ASEAN trade relations should transform. This study empirically analyzed the impact of asymmetric changes in exchange rates and relative prices on Korea's trade with China and ASEAN using monthly data from 1998 to 2022. Specifically, for a more consistent analysis, analysis was conducted focusing on imports from Korea's trade with China and ASEAN, and analysis by country was performed for comparison. At this time, in order to alleviate the problem of 'aggregation convenience', imports were divided into trades by processing stage based on the UN's BEC classification standards and analyzed closely. In addition, the unit root test and cointegration test (ARDL-Bound Test) were performed to consider the time-series characteristics of key variables, and the nonlinear ARDL-ECM model was used to analyze the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and relative price changes empirically. did. As a result of the analysis, it can be seen that imports between Korea and China and ASEAN are consistent with Orcutt's hypothesis that only Korea's Greater Malaysia and Thailand use all import variables. However, the results of analyzing intermediate goods by processing stage showed that the asymmetrical effect of changes in exchange rates or relative prices in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines was more consistent with this hypothesis. It is also suggested from the side that the problem of 'aggregation bias' has an effect on whether or not the hypothesis of Orcutt is established. In addition, in the case of analysis of the long- and short-term equilibrium relationship between Korea's China and the five ASEAN countries, different results were obtained for each country. This suggests that it is necessary to establish a strategy for responding to products in terms of policy or a strategic direction for maintaining relations with the country concerned.