중국의 인구구조 변화가 경상수지에 미치는 장·단기 영향

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, Chinese economy has achieved rapid development by leaps and bounds, which is called the "Chinese-style growth miracle" by Western countries. During this period, the export as one of the "troika" of the national economy has played an extremely important role for a long time. From 1994 to 2013, China's current account balance has achieved a surplus for 20 consecutive years, especially since its accession to the WTO, the trade surplus has grown rapidly. Regarding the reason why China's current account receipts support the continued surplus, the main international argument is exchange rate manipulation. However, the U.S. trade deficit has lasted for 20 years, and Japan’s current account surplus has also lasted for 22 years, indicating that the evolution of the current account is continuously affected by certain decisive factors. This article attempts to explain the impact on China’s current account revenue from the perspective of demographic changes. The impact of expenditure and savings. This article will determine the long-term and short-term relationships between China's demographic changes, current account, savings, and various factors. To this end, time series data from 1982 to 2019 and ARDL cointegration techniques are used to find long-term relationships. The results show that, in the long run, demographic changes and per capita GDP will have a negative impact on the current account. On the contrary, the impact of savings and real interest rates on the current account is positive. In addition, the error correction model shows that, in the short term, demographic changes, GDP per capita, savings and real interest rates will have a positive impact on the early market of the current account.