IPA와 구조방정식 모형분석을 통한 2008베이징 올림픽 개최의 장기적 영향력 분석

Abstract

本研究是对中国2008年北京奥运会赛后所产生的长期效果的研究。因此，本研究采用IPA分析法，对2008年北京奥运会赛后产生的经济，文化，旅游，环境领域等效果进行重要度和成就度的比较分析；采用结构方程模型分析法，对2008年北京奥运会赛后产生的效果与城市满足，城市评价进行因果关系的分析。最终，本研究重点在于为2022年北京冬季奥林匹克运动会的成功开展提供基础材料借鉴,以及为举办大型体育赛事促进城市更新理论研究提供参考依据。 为达成本研究目的，问卷设计的结构由经济，文化，旅游，环境领域的效果；城市满足；城市评价；人口统计学的特性4个部分组成。调查对象是北京市20周岁以上的居民，问卷发放时间从2020年9月1日至2020年12月31日，通过网上和现场两种形式进行发放。本研究共发放问卷700份，回收问卷464份(66.29%)，其中去处无效问卷后，最终得到有效问卷379份(54.1%)用于研究分析，由此得出以下研究结果： 第一, 重要度的优先顺序是①提升城市认知度, 知名度 ②宣传城市旅游胜地 ③地域社会文化发展 ④增加游客数量 ⑤美化城市景观。成就度的优先是①提升城市认知度, 知名度 ②宣传城市旅游胜地 ③扩大业余生活及娱乐机会 ④增加游客数量 ⑤美化城市景观。 第二, 对于2008年北京奥运会赛后产生的效果进行重要度和成就度的差异分析，经济因素方面：增加就业机会(t=-2.705,p<.001)，改善生活环境，如道路，通讯等基础设施(t=4.027,p<.001)；文化因素方面：扩大业余生活及娱乐机会(t=-2.647, p<.001), 帮助发展文化庆典业(t=-2.318,p<.001)，在以上指标中，重要度和成就度呈现显著性差异。 第三, IPA Matrix的分析结果：在持续保持区第 I 象限中，发展地域社会文化, 扩大业余生活及娱乐机会, 旅游城市形象, 增加游客数量, 开发旅游资源, 美化城市景观，城市认知度与知名度的提升，共计7个指标。在优先改善区的第Ⅱ象限中，仅出现改善生活环境1个指标。在低度重视区的第Ⅲ象限中，促进经济，增加就业机会，收入增加及提高生活水平，扩大业余生活及娱乐机会，增加旅游服务业收入，共计5个指标出现。 第四，2008年北京奥运会赛后产生的效果对城市满足(t=7.917,p<.001)和城市评价(t=5.226,p<.001)在统计上呈现显著的正向因果关系，城市满足对城市评价(t=8.983, p<.001)在统计上呈现显著的正向因果关系。 综上所述，2008年北京奥运会赛后产生的效果在文化，旅游，环境领域存在长期的持续性影响，增加就业机会，扩大业余生活及娱乐机会，帮助发展文化庆典业等指标中，城市居民的期待相比较奥运会赛前，在赛后产生了更高的成就度。另外, 2008年北京奥运会所建设的公共体育设施是城市的重要的组成要素，确保城市竞争力发展战略的同时在奥运结束至今10年多仍然具有很大的影响力，在本研究中得以充分的证明。 然而，经济效果没有达到预期的成就度，原因在于奥运会开展以后，相比其他城市，以北京为中心的物价和房价的暴增，使2008年北京奥运会的举办效果在经济方面则会呈现较短暂的影响，因此，即将举办的2022年北京冬季奥林匹克运动会，发展冰雪运动建设的大型体育设施，在制定交通，旅游，文化，城市品牌等有形·无形的发展战略，以及城市居民通过举办大型体育赛事得到的经济上的实惠政策等方面，应有更深层次的思考。|The purpose of this study is to investigate the long-term effects of the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics held in China. This study analyzed the effects of holding the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics in the areas of economics, culture, tourism, and environment by the comparison of importance and performance through IPA. Moreover, the causal relationship between effects of holding the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics and city satisfaction and city reputation through the structural equation modeling(SEM). This study focused on the presentation of basic data for the successful holding of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and basic information for the causal relationship between effects of holding sports events and city evaluation. This study developed a structured questionnaire. It consisted of four areas of the holding effects in the areas of economics, culture, tourism, and environment, city satisfaction, city reputation, and demographic characteristics. The survey was conducted on-line and off-line with residents over twenty years old residing in Beijing from September 1 to December 31, 2020. A total of 700 questionnaires were distributed and 464(66.29%) were returned. Finally, 379(54.1%) questionnaires were used for statistical processing. The results were as follows. First, the priority of importance was ①the improvement of city awareness and fame, ②the publicity of city tourist spots, ③the development of community culture, ④the increase in tourists, and ⑤the improvement of city beauty. The priority of performance was ①the improvement of city awareness and fame, ②the publicity of city tourist spots, ③the extension of leisure and recreation opportunities, ④the increase in tourists, and ⑤the improvement of city beauty. Second, the difference in importance and performance for the effects of holding the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics was analyzed. As a result, there was a statistically significant difference in the increased jobs of economic factors(t=-2.705, p<.001), the improved living environment such as a road, waterworks, and a telephone(t=4.027, p<.001), the extension of leisure and recreation opportunities of cultural factors(t=-2.647, p<.001), and helping the development of cultural festivals(t=-2.318, p<.001). Third, as a result of the analysis of IPA matrix, Quadrant I(Keep Up the Good Work) included seven items such as the development of community culture, the extension of leisure and recreation opportunities, the image of a tourist city, increased tourists, the development of tourism resources, the improvement of city beauty, and the improvement of city awareness and fame. Quadrant II(Concentrate Here) included one item such as improved living environment. Quadrant III(Low Priority) included five items such as economic activation, increased jobs, increased income and improved living standards, the extension of leisure and recreation opportunities, and increased income of the tourism and service industry. Fourth, the effects of holding the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics had a statistically positive(+) effect on city satisfaction(t=7.917, p<.001) and city reputation(t=5.226, p<.001). City satisfaction(t=8.983, p<.001) had a statistically positive(+) effect on city reputation. In conclusion, this study found that the effects of holding the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics has been continued in the areas of culture, tourism, and environment for long time. Moreover, the performance after the Olympics was higher than residents expected before the Olympics in increased jobs, extended opportunities for leisure and recreation, helping the development of cultural festivals. Public sports facilities created for the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics are the important elements of city. This study proves that holding olympic games is an effective strategy for city competitiveness and its influence has been continued even now for more than 10 years after the Olympics ended. However, this study suggests that the performance of economic effects was not as high as the expectation because of a sudden rise in prices and housing price, and a higher rise in prices than other cities around Beijing after the Olympics. In other words, the effects of holding the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics were short-term in the economic area. Therefore, it is necessary to build up infrastructure for the development of ice sports, establish tangible and intangible development strategies such as transportation, tourism, culture, and city brand, and make an in-depth study of residents’ economic benefits received by holding mega-sports events.