한․중 FTA에 따른 지속가능한 서해안 해운물류체계 개발방안 연구

Abstract

ABSTRACT

A Study on the Sustainable Development Strategy of West Coast's Port Logistic System based on Korea-China FTA

Kim, Yu-Jin Advisor: Prof. Kim, Seog-Min, Ph.D. Department of FTA Business Graduate School of Chosun University

Formulation of Korea's passenger/physical distribution Hub (HUB) that utilizes the geopolitical advantages of the Korean peninsula that connects Japan with the Northeast Asia Region that has emerged in one of the world's three largest is one of the very important issues for the future advancement of Korea economy. This thesis will quantitatively analyze the location selection and development capability of the west coast port candidates in order that the west coast region could take the role as a core logistics point in Northeast Asia. In addition, it is the main purpose of this study to establish the sustainable development direction of the West Coast port logistics system after the Korea-China FTA. The sustainability of Port development is a very important policy consideration. This is because Port development requires a long-term period of 20-30 years, and it is difficult to correct the on-going developments in a short time depending on the situation changes. Therefore, it is the biggest contribution of this study to systematically analyze the comprehensive and sustainable port development strategy of the korea's west coast ports considering the evolution of the Korean logistic system and the possibility of the formation of a new transportation network in the medium to long term, while suggesting the reduction of the management functions of Busan port. Through the analysis of mixed integer programming method, which is one of the mathematical programming techniques, The meaningful number, locations and development scales of an optimal shipping base (i.e. port) are pointed in this study. In this thesis, targeting the year 2030, the quantitative analysis of the direction of the development of the West Coast Ports was first conducted, taking into consideration of the transportation cost and the port cost reflecting the area. Besides, we looked at the direction changes of the efficient port development under the new transportation network system - such as the construction of the Korea-China Railway Tunnel under the seabed - in terms of transport cost and freight's time value. As a result of comparing the above two analysis, it was found that the comprehensive development strategy of the West Coast Ports presented in this study has the possibility of sustainability even considering the future transport system. This was confirmed through the three serialized papers included in this study, and the three serialized papers applied the same model for analytical consistency. The originality and the discrimination of the study are as follows. First, this is not the mutually exclusive individual port development plan based on self demand analysis, but the first study that quantitatively presents the port's comprehensive optimum position and development capacity through mixed integer model analysis from the point of Korea-China FTA. Second, this thesis proposed a medium- and long-term sustainable West Coast Port development strategy, taking into account future changes in transportation conditions, such as the improvement of logistics conditions, the increase in port expansion costs, and the construction of the Korea-China submarine tunnel railway. In this study, the significance of the research is to measure and present the long-term west coast port development strategy that takes into account the increase in logistic flow between Korea & China, land transportation costs, and port expansion costs. It is expected that this result can be used effectively in consideration of cost factors such as the port opening time in the future. The more the Korea-China FTA mature and the trade volume between Korea-China, the more important it is that Incheon Port's transportation hub strategy needs to be prioritized. It was shown that Pyungtac-Dangjin Port and Gunsan Port (Semangeum Gunsan Port) could also be selected as additional potential base port candidates, and it was analyzed that long-term port planning formulation was necessary for those ports. In order to make Incheon Port a major logistic base, it is necessary to develop port logistics facilities suitable as a comprehensive logistics base directly connected to the inland cargo depot. For this reason, a direct cargo handling system should be established with a construction of underground cargo railway connecting the Incheon port-front (i.e. birth ) and Euiwang inland cargo base. It was confirmed that the China-freight(both in/out) of the capital region such as Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi-Do was prioritized to Incheon and Pyungtac port due to the relative difference in port expansion cost and transporting cost. As a result, it became also clear that the need to an additional port expansion of the Pyungtac port grows with respect to the realestate price increase of the Incheon port. In addition, if the land cost of the Pyung port increases, the freight in the Chungbuk-Do area will be additionally moved from the Pyungtac port to the Kunsan port. In this case, there is a need for another expansion of the Kunsan port (i.e. Saemangum-Kunsan Port). With a future realization of Korea-China Seabed Tunnel railway, it was confirmed that about 7% of import/export sea-cargo was likely to be converted to the Seabed Railway. And it is analysed that those converted cargos could be ones with a higher transporting-time value. Besides, other general containerized cargoes were analyzed as cost-effective to be transported under the existing port transportation system. As a conclusion, it is predicted that even under the new future transportation network system, the basic concept of the development of the West Coast Ports is not expected to be changed, and hence the sustainablility of the port's development strategy of the West Coast presented by this thesis has been confirmed.