중국의 환율정책과 수출 성과에 관한 연구

Abstract

ABSTRACT Exchange Rate policy and Export Performance in China -Focusing on Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate-

SHI MICHEN Advisor : Prof. Lee JongHa, Ph.D. Department of International Trade, Graduate School of Chosun University

With the developing expansion of foreign trade, as a export-oriented country China won the trade surplus to promoted economic growth and increased the foreign exchange reserves. However, the pressure of RMB appreciation is constant and increasing in recent years. Especially at 21st July, 2005, the People’Bank of China announces that China will reform the exchange rate regime by moving into a managed floating exchange rate regime base on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies from 21th July, 2005. And RMB will no longer the pegged to the US dollar and the RMB exchange rate regime will be improved by the greater flexibility. RMB was floating upward 2%. From then on, RMB exchange rate is always in a risen state. Against this backdrop, this paper uses the BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) model to examines the equilibrium real exchange rate in China during the period 1982–2016. We apply the methods ADF unit root rest, and the johansen cointegeation test, in order to test the long-run relations between exchange rate and its determinants, and the deviation between RMB real exchange rate and its equilibrium exchange rate can be measured (real exchange rate misalignments). In addition, uses OLS model to the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and export performance is investigated. In summary, the major findings are as follows. First, there is a positive relationship between the real effective exchange rate and terms of trade, net foreign asset, open degree, but a negative relationship with the productivity and government spending. Second, 1982 to 2016 time series model shows that, RMB real effective exchange rate has been over-valuated during 1996~2008, and under-valuated form 2011 to 2016. This study also shows that real exchange rate misalignment could have a positive impact on export performance in China. With its implications on economic activity, monitoring real exchange rate equilibrium and misalignment is a useful tool for governments/central banks to ensure balance in the economy.

Keyword: BEER model, equilibrium exchange rate, real exchange rate misalignments, Export Performance.