보호무역주의 강화가 한국 중간재 수출에 미치는 파급효과 분석

Abstract

The Impact of Trade Protectionism on the Exports of Korea's Intermediate Goods

Ko, Yun-Hwa Advisor : Prof. Kim, Seog-min, Ph.D. Department of FTA Business Graduate School of Chosun University

This paper aims to analyze the impact of the decrease in the global aggregate demand due to the rising protectionism of the United States with the inter-industry analysis method on the export of South Korea and to derive its implications based on the analysis result. The analysis result can be summarized as follows: First, among South Korea's total exports to the United States, intermediate goods exported to third countries via the United States accounted for only 5.8%. Second, the effects of the decreased aggregate demand on the exports of intermediate goods in the world were analyzed with the final goods production decomposition analysis method (backward linkage) of WWYZ (2016) and the global exports of intermediate goods are estimated to have decreased by USD 74 billion. Third, China was found to be the country with the greatest impact on intermediate goods exports of Korea due to the decline in final demand with the spread of protectionism. According to the analysis, a 1.0% fall in China 's final reproduction would decrease Korea' s intermediate exports to China by about USD 730 million. Finally, based on the analysis result, a set of response strategies are suggested including; preparing for the reorganization of the global value chains (GVCs), re-establishing industrial and trade policies from the perspective of GVCs, strengthening the position in the Asian GVCs, preparing for appreciation of the yuan, beefing up the high value-added service industry and establishing linkages with manufacturing, diversifying export regions and expanding final goods exports, increasing FTA utilization, and enhancing origin management.