북한의 위기인식과 위기관리 전략에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study started with the question of why North Korea doesn't give up the nuclear programme. Most of the existing researches focused on the response to North Korea's nuclear development, and in the field of crisis management study in North Korea focused on not how crisis situations affected the crisis recognition but the internal control methods of external conditions Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. In addition, it was difficult to approach to the nuclear development intentions of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il by approaching from an external standpoint. To solve these problems, the main objective of this study was to analyze the nuclear issue under the assumption that the ultimate purpose of North Korea's nuclear program would be to be different depending on the perceived crisis of the country's top leader. The characteristic of this study is that it focused on the behavior shown by North Korea regarding nuclear weapons. And by looking for reasons and grounds for such actions, it analyzed the motivation of nuclear development through the relationship between crisis management strategy and the crisis awareness of Kim Il sung and Kim Jong Il. The study incorporates a framework which analysis called "strategy of crisis management" about the nuclear activities North Korea has shown since establishing its regime in the northern half of the Korean Peninsula, and attempts to solve the problem by tracing the background behind such a crisis management strategy. Then, as factors affecting the crisis management strategy, the level of crisis awareness of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il were divided into national, system and government, and the factors affecting each level were divided into international and domestic factors. The crises of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il developed in a quite different way before and after the post-cold war. Kim Il Sung appropriately used his powers and the powers of China and the Soviet Union in the crisis situations that arise in the context of the Cold War environment and the early stages of the founding of the country, while Kim Jong Il was placed at a disadvantage situation that had to overcome the deterioration of the international political environment due to the pressure of external forces in the post-Cold war and economic difficulties. Furthermore, Kim Jong Il followed the strategic culture of the military regime that his father Kim Il Sung created for the justification of power succession, but failed to produce good results. Therefore, the purpose of nuclear development were different between Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Kim Il Sung 's personal experience and external environment played a major role in the North Korean crisis in the pre - Cold War era, but the crisis after the post - Cold War period can be found in the structural contradiction of the socialist planned economy and the inefficiency of the unique leadership system. The collapse of the socialist countries has also led to the worst of the crisis, since it has further heightened the North Korean crisis after the Cold War. Based on the confidence and leadership gained by the experience of the anti-Japanese armed struggle, Kim Il Sung established the system in a stable manner while deputizing himself to a high level while receiving support from the Soviet Army. In response to the nuclear threat of neighboring countries, they needed nuclear weapons as a self-reliant means to defend North Korea. On the other hand, Kim Jong Il faces a situation in which the sudden death of Kim Il Sung causes the emptiness of power and the loosening of the dominant ideology derived from the collapse of the socialist countries and the severe economic difficulties and the weakening of social control. Therefore, a decisive means was needed to overcome this. In spite of this, Kim Jong Il needs to be different ruling ideology compare with his father like Military First Policy. Thus, the difference of perceived crisis of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il led a distinctive nuclear development strategy. While Kim Il Sung reduced his perception of crisis by his own way, the crisis management strategy and crisis management behavior were compromised, Kim Jong Il had a high level of awareness of crisis due to the accumulated crisis from before his administration. It has been an aggressive and intransigent crisis management to solve. Therefore, in order to induce North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons, it would be expected that if the strength of the perception of crisis felt by the supreme leader of North Korea is reduced, it would be possible to abandon nuclear weapons, or at least to progress to the level of freezing under the present circumstances. The conclusion of this study is that if the Republic of Korea and the international community are committed to pursuing a policy to lower the perception of the crisis of the best leaders of North Korea credibly and continuously, it would be possible to achieve denuclearization of North Korea.