한반도 유사시 중국의 군사개입과 한국의 대응전략에 관한 연구

Abstract

ABSTRACT A study on China’s Military Intervention in Emergency Situations of the Korean Peninsula and Korea’s Counterstrategy

Ryoo Young Gyu Advisor : Prof. Oh Soo Yol ph.D. Department of Military Science Graduate School of Chosun University

With economic growth, military buildup and expanded diplomatic capabilities, China has become great in its influence on the security environment of the Korean Peninsula. It is expected that in an emergency situation of the Korean Peninsula, which could be generated by the North Korean sudden collapse, China will intervene militarily in the North Korean region in any forms in order to prevent security anxiety caused by the fall of the North Korean regime and a large number of North Korea refugees’ influx into China. As to the Korean Peninsula’s emergency situation, we can suppose factors of North Korea, South Korea and South-North interrelations, but this thesis, limiting the emergency situation to North Korean factor, laid focus on investigating decisive factors of China’s military intervention in the N.K. region then, together with their possible strategy, and presenting Korea’s counterstrategy. In case of emergency situation in the Korean peninsula caused by the North’s sudden collapse, China’s military intervention will vary in aspects according to the response of the US and the ROK-US Combined Forces. Considering only national interest, kinds of China’s preferred military intervention will be China’s single intervention, China-led multinational forces, and intervention through the UN in the order. However, considering the burden it must take in case of China’s single intervention, the country would consider the priority of intervention through the UN, followed by multinational forces and China’s single intervention in the order. Therefore, we can say that China’s military intervention following the North Korea’s sudden collapse will be most likely intervention in the form of multinational forces. That is, we can reasonably expect that to control the initial conditions of the emergency situation, China will singly intervene in North Korea regions, and then through agreements with international society such as the US or the UN, it will seek to organize multinational forces and intervene in the North Korea regions with China-led multinational forces. In the beginning of an emergency situation, China will immediately put military force into the North Korea region in the cause of positive intervention and then perform policy of adjusting the range of intervention in the North Korea area following the US’ and Korea’s responses. Here, the most desirable aspect for Korea is that ROK-US Combined Forces positively intervene under China’s situation of negative intervention, restore the order of North Korea regions, and form Korea-led circumstances of reunification. On the other hand, we can also presuppose that China and ROKUS Combined Forces will both attempt a positive intervention leading to occurrence of collision in the North Korea region. Accordingly, we can even expect that through prior consultation, China and the US will put in their military forces by dividing the North Korea region in order to prevent military collisions. It is the most worrying situation where the North Korea area will be divided by the powers, of which Korea should be wary most. Korea’s strategy for intervention will be intervention by ROK-US Combined Forces based on Korea-US alliance or intervention by multinational forces through consultation with the US, China, etc. We can also surmise the alternative of supporting the North Korea region’s stabilization and reconstruction by calling for the intervention from the UN-led international society. This thesis saw that in emergency situation of the Korean Peninsula, the best counterstrategy of Korea on China’s military intervention in the North Korea region will put forward the strategy of a positive intervention by means of the ROK-US Combined Forces based on Korea-US alliance, and by devising a diplomatic and economic counterplan, keep the Chinese army from entering the North Korea region regardless of any form or size. It is because if the Chinese army advances into the North Korea area, it will be stationed for a considerable time with expanded influences in any way. Though there seems to be little possibility in the current security situations, forming confidence so that, if any leading class or the military of the North Korea wants support for stabilizing the North Korea region, they may ask Korea earlier than China will be the most essential task.

Key Words: emergency situation in the Korean Peninsula, North Korea’s sudden collapse, jurisdiction, military intervention, alliance, multinational forces