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유수율 향상 예측 및 사업 투자비 산정에 관한 연구

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Author(s)
김광일
Issued Date
2017
Abstract
According to the ministry of environment of Korea, the average revenue water ratio was as high as 85% for the entire country in 2015. But the water revenue ratio of the small counties were as low as 60%. This means about 40% of produced water is leaked to the ground of no use. Therefore, many counties make an effort to increase water revenue ratio.
In this study, The five small counties are selected as samples to develope the model of forecasting revenue water ratio and investment prediction model. Those small counties have executed advanced pipe network system such as construction of block system and GIS DB, real time monitoring of leakage and network management system, water pressure management and old pipe replacement. The models were developed based on regression analysis. The models were verified by adopting the other county, which has constructed advanced pipe network system.
Two factors, the elapsed time of adopting advanced pipe network system and the replacement ratio of old pipe, were selected as control parameters in this model. Between the two factors, the elapsed time of adopting advanced pipe network system was more important than the other factor; the replacement ratio.
According to the models, about six years are required to increase 20% of the water revenue ratio. Based on the result 10% increase of water revenue ratio costs 1.3 million won for the each water faucet.
Alternative Title
A Study on Forecasting Method of Revenue Water Ratio and Investment costA Study on Forecasting Method of Revenue Water Ratio and Investment cost
Alternative Author(s)
Kim, Kwang Il
Department
일반대학원 토목공학과
Advisor
김성홍
Awarded Date
2017-08
Table Of Contents
제 1 장 서론··························································1
1.1 연구배경 및 목적·····················································1
1.2 연구동향 및 문헌연구················································3
1.3 연구내용 및 구성·····················································6
제 2 장 이론적 고찰··················································8
2.1 유수율 개념과 변화 추이·············································8
2.1.1 유수율의 정의························································8
2.1.2 전국 유수율 및 지방 중소도시 유수율 변화·······················9
2.2 선진 상수관망 시스템···············································11
2.2.1 블록시스템··························································11
2.2.2 수압관리····························································25
2.2.3 노후관 정비·························································40
2.2.4 유수율 분석·························································46
2.2.5 누수량 분석·························································50
2.3 회귀분석·····························································56
2.3.1 다중회귀분석·······················································56
2.3.2 변수선정····························································58
2.3.3 회귀모형 검증······················································60
제 3 장 연구 방법···················································62
3.1 연구 대상 지역 현황················································62
3.1.1 일반 현황···························································62
3.1.2 선진 상수관망 시스템 구축 현황··································63
3.1.3 사업비 투자 현황···················································65
3.2 분석 방법 및 변수 선정·············································67
3.2.1 분석 방법···························································67
3.2.2 영향인자 검토 및 변수 선정·······································69
제 4 장 연구 결과 고찰·············································75
4.1 상관관계 분석 및 변수 변환········································75
4.1.1 상관관계 분석······················································75
4.1.2 독립변수 변환······················································78
4.1.3 변수 선정···························································80
4.2 유수율 예측 및 사업 투자비 산출 모델 개발······················88
4.2.1 유수율 예측 모델 개발·············································88
4.2.2 사업 투자비 산출 모델 개발·······································90
4.3 유수율 예측 및 사업 투자비 산출 모델 검증······················93
4.3.1 유수율 예측 모델 검증·············································93
4.3.2 사업 투자비 산출 모델 검증·······································95
4.4 모델 효과 분석······················································97
4.4.1 유수율 예측 모델 효과분석········································97
4.4.2 사업 투자비 산출 효과분석········································98
제 5 장 결론 및 향후과제·········································100

참 고 문 헌 102

부록 A 유수율 예측 모델 변수 선정 현황 105
부록 B 사업 투자비 산출 모델 변수 선정 현황 108
부록 C 유수율 예측 모델 Case별 회귀분석 결과 111
Degree
Doctor
Publisher
조선대학교
Citation
김광일. (2017). 유수율 향상 예측 및 사업 투자비 산정에 관한 연구.
Type
Dissertation
URI
https://oak.chosun.ac.kr/handle/2020.oak/13310
http://chosun.dcollection.net/common/orgView/200000266389
Appears in Collections:
General Graduate School > 4. Theses(Ph.D)
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