북한 핵 억제를 위한 한국의 전략적 대응방안에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to suggest the practical and realistic countermeasures of Korea by evaluating the level and threats of North Korea 's nuclear development over the past 20 years, by classifying it as military response and non - military response. The threat of North Korean nuclear threat is escalating as North Korea has pursued with relative success the strategy of making their nuclear warhead “smaller, lighter and more standardized” through five nuclear weapons experiments as well as launching ICBM and SLBM to test and develop missiles for launching nuclear warhead. The international community, through the Six-Party Talks, have made various efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem via continuous dialogues and negotiations, the resolution of the United Nations Security Council and the individual member country independently imposing sanctions against North Korea. However, South Korea’s nuclear weapons capability is becoming more advanced as a result of continued nuclear weapons and missile launch tests. Today, it is believed that North Korea has passed the completion phase of nuclear weapons development cycle and already entered the deployment phase. Solving the North Korean nuclear weapons problem is critical in protecting the life and the property of the citizens of our country. It is also crucial because a successful resolution of the problem will dispossess North Korea of the political and military superiority it has been enjoying with use of nuclear weapons and sever the links of “nuclear threat → negotiation → compensation” mechanism and create a chance for the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the peaceful unification of Korea.” The reason North Korea is resorting to nuclear weapons development appears to be because it does not have a confidence in winning war against South Korea using the traditional and outdated weapons they currently possess, making them think that the only way to win war is to get a head start in the initial phase of war or use nuclear weapons as a means of last resort. In terms of the types of nuclear war North Korea may resort to, we can think of the following: infiltrate and cause local provocation and then threaten to use nuclear weapons; use nuclear weapons after starting a full-scale war; nuclear terror using nuclear pack (SADM: Special Atomic Demolition Munitions); and general nuclear proliferation strategy. In terms of the effect of the North Korean nuclear armament has on the security of South Korea as well as the world, an arms race will accelerate as each country affected will try to procure a military capability that can detect nuclear threat in advance and expand their military power in order to protect their territory to gain advantage in potential territorial conflicts caused by arms race. In order to deter North Korea’s nuclear armament process and induce it to relinquish its nuclear arms program, it is necessary for all branches and organizations of the government to cooperate and produce a solution that encompasses military, political and diplomatic aspects. In order to make this possible, it is necessary to create an open window of communication with North Korea to engage in dialogue and negotiation; introduce relevant measures via diplomacy with surrounding countries; and implement a plan to maintain heightened military readiness via developing new military strategies and reinforcing military strengths. Under the above-mentioned basic principles, Military and Non-Military countermeasures were proposed as countermeasures against North Korea's nuclear armament. As countermeasures of the military aspect, the deployment plan of the US tactical nuclear weapons and THAAD on the Korean Peninsula through cooperation with the international community, and the plan to secure the ‘expansionary restraint’ of the US nuclear umbrella, solidifying the Korea-US combined defense posture were proposed, and as independent countermeasures of Korea, the plan to build underwater Kill Chain system for 'Korean Type 3 Axis' and Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system were proposed, information power supplementation plan and beheading operations to ensure preemptive attack conditions by Korea Massive Punishment & Retaliation(KMPR) operation were proposed. Non-military measures were suggested in which we will induce Denuclearization of North Korea based on dialogue and compromise through six-party talks by strengthening international cooperation, we will continue to impose sanctions and pressure on the North with international society. Korea autonomously suggested the plan to boost Korean security from the level of self-defense to the stage of nuclear armament, and the psychological warfare in which we separate Kim Jeong Eun and residents so that North Korean leadership give up its nuclear ambitions. While the research was being done, global diplomatic environment changed unpredictably as North Korea conducted their fourth and fifth nuclear tests which were followed by international sanctions and long-distance missile launch test. Also, there were other major changes such as a strategic shift in United State’s Pivot To Asia strategy, Sino-Japan territorial conflict; rearmament of Japan; Russia’s Asian strategy; and unpredictability of Kim Jeong-eun regime of North Korea. The limits of this paper lied in the inability to accommodate rapidly changing situations and environments; and, since the research was done based on the information about North Korea that was publicly available, the study would be incomplete compared to the research based on more “complete” information including publically unavailable ones. Additional researches from more diverse experts are necessary to complement the limits of this research. It is hoped that the research results would contribute to more effectively deterring North Korean nuclear armament and laying a foundation for the world peace and the Korean unification.