북한의 화학무기 위협과 폐기방안

Abstract

The threat of North Korea‘s chemical weapons, which has not received attention due to the nuclear weapons and missile issues, has attracted attention in recent years. The North Korea's assassination of Kim Jong-nam and the use of chemical weapons in Syria are the news' headlines. Donald Trump, the current US president, has been adamant that he will resolve North Korea's nuclear issue soon after taking over presidential office and strongly complained about North Korea's nuclear issue, hence he is gradually increasing the intensity of military pressure. However, South Korea needs to prepare strongly against North Korea's chemical weapons, which unfortunately, gains relatively little interest. Chemical weapons are dangerous, and can be used both in war and in terror. So far, the research on the threats and countermeasures of chemical weapons in North Korea and the technology of chemical weapons destruction have been carried out partially. However, research on the methods of removing chemical weapons and disposal methods of North Korea through arms control has been lacking. Thus, in this study, I researched on how to push and induce North Korea to give up chemical weapons through the case of chemical weapons arms control. Also I focused my study on how to effectively dispose of chemical weapons in North Korea according to the scenarios in which North Korea abandons chemical weapons. First, I analyzed the cases of arms control of chemical weapons, and discovered the lessons that can induce North Korea to give up chemical weapons. Chemical weapons arms control is the beginning of the 1925 Geneva Protocol. These arms control efforts continued until the Chemical Weapons Convention came into force in 1997. The following lessons can be learned from the case of chemical weapons arms control to eliminate chemical weapons in North Korea. The United States and Soviet chemical weapons bilateral agreements have shown that the strategic utility of chemical weapons has decreased and that the use of chemical weapons has become less likely due to increased international public criticism for the use of chemical weapons. As a result, they arrived to an agreement for chemical weapons arms control voluntary. In the case of Libya, it was learned that Gaddafi, in the economic crisis of international sanctions and pressure, was promised regime preservation and gave up weapons of mass destruction. In the case of Syria, using chemical weapons had a negative impact on the international public opinion so it gave up chemical weapons. In the case of Libya and Syria, I can see that international pressure, economic sanctions for chemical weapons abandonment and the promise of regime preservation are the factors that made arms control a success. Finally, the Mendoza Agreement in South America has drawn the lesson that the consensus to eliminate chemical weapons in South America has played an important role in arms control success. In order to analyze the possibility of chemical weapons abandonment in North Korea, I analyzed the reason why North Korea developed chemical weapons. If North Korea developed chemical weapons to secure its deterrent against the US nuclear threat, the reason for developed chemical weapons would have disappeared since the development of nuclear weapons has now reached a stage of almost complete success. In addition, even if it was developed as a means of attack in order to occupy superiority in the conventional weapons race, the possibility of abandoning the chemical weapons in North Korea could be higher because it could satisfy the reason that North Korea succeeded in the development of tactical nuclear weapons. Also, if ROK's new government chooses intra-exchange policy with North Korea, and positively review the North Korea's opinion for peace treaty between South Korea and North Korea, or between the United States and North Korea, the reason for the development of weapons of mass destruction could be resolved. If the lessons derived from the case of arm control of chemical weapons are applied to North Korea and it would succeed in abandonment of chemical weapons, the scenario would be as follows. Scenario #1 is to abandon weapons of mass destruction, including chemical weapons, with international pressure and economic sanctions. Scenario #2 is a case of abandoning chemical weapons because of sudden change, and also civil war outbreak in North Korea. The Kim Jong-un regime insisted on weapons of mass destruction to the end, despite international pressure, and assumed the situation in which the internal coup occurred in the face of economical difficulties, as a result of international sanctions. Scenario #3 is the situation in which a ROK-USFK or UN force occupies North Korea and abandons chemical weapons in a sudden change of situation or war. These three scenarios are evaluated based on the willingness of the government, political and military stability, and environmental factors, which are the three factors that influence the disposal of chemical weapons. As a result, scenario #1 is the most favorable situation for chemical weapons destruction, while scenario #2 is the worst. Therefore, we try to achieve scenario #1 where we induce abandonment chemical weapons of North Korea. In order to select appropriate destruction methods according to the North Korea's chemical weapons abandonment scenarios, I analyzed the destruction systems used in other countries. Of the seven countries that have reported chemical weapons so far, four countries except the United States, Russia and Libya have completed chemical weapons destruction. The United States has discarded 90% of the 31,000 tons of chemical weapons reported, and the remaining 10% has been disposed of at the end of 2016. In the early stage, the incineration technology was used, which was followed by the neutralization. Also recently, the bio-treatment and SCWO technology are added to the chemical weapons destruction facility. Russia has discarded 92% of the reported amount of 40,000 tons, and the rest is being disposed of at one chemical weapons destruction facility. The neutralization technology is used as the destruction technology from the start. Unlike other countries, the destruction method of chemical weapons in Syria was dismantled in the public seas by installing a destruction system on the vessel. Syria's political and military situation was very unstable due to civil war, therefore its destruction in Syria was restricted. In addition, I have also studied mobile explosive destruction systems to treat abandoned chemical ammunition in the battle area. The following is the result of having researched on suitable destruction methods for North Korea, by applying chemical weapons destruction system to the scenarios in which North Korea abandons chemical weapons. In scenarios #1 and #3, fixed chemical weapons destruction facility used in Libya is selected the most feasible in terms of cost and location. In scenario #3, it demands mobile explosive destruction system additionally for treating abandoned chemical ammunition. To make sure we achieve scenario #1, I emphasized on the fact that the economic support should be carried out through stages, according to the pace of destruction to ensure that the Kim Jong-un regime will continue to dispose of chemical weapons. In scenario #2, a Syrian destruction plan is proposed. Since the political and military situation in North Korea is unstable, this plan is the best way to dispose of chemical weapons on ships located on the public seas. At that time, North Korea's chemical weapons would be taken out of North Korea through Nampo Port and Wonsan Port, and destroyed by the destruction system installed on the ship. The key for success in this method is to get rid of chemical weapons in North Korea. Therefore there should be a plan to successfully carry out and verify, otherwise, it must follow the Syrian event. For the selected destruction plan, A road-map is presented. When this road-map will be applied to dispose of chemical weapons of North Korea, its destruction will be completed successfully. Lastly, I suggest policies at the international and domestic levels to dismantle chemical weapons in North Korea. North Korea's chemical weapons are extremely dangerous that can be used at any time during war. It can also be used for terrorism as seen in Kim Jong-nam's assassination. Nonetheless, South Korea tends to ignore the danger of chemical weapons by sticking to the North Korean nuclear issue only. It should be kept in mind that unlike nuclear weapons, chemical weapons have been and continue to be used. In order to eliminate these risks in advance, I propose a way to induce the abandonment and destruction of chemical weapons in North Korea, and the direction of our preparation for this.

Key Words: chemical weapons arms control, chemical weapons international agreement, chemical weapons destruction technology, chemical weapons destruction system, reason of North Korea chemical weapons development, chemical weapons threat, chemical weapons abandonment scenario, road-map for chemical weapons destruction.