북한의 핵ㆍ미사일 위협에 대비한 한국의 군사적 대응전략

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to propose a military counterstrategy in Korea that can effectively prepare for the rapidly increasing North Korean nuclear and missile threats and demonstrate sufficient deterrent to North Korea. The sanctions are being strengthened along with various measures by the South and the international community to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, but there are no clear results yet. Rather, as the economic sanctions and pressures of the international community, centering on the United States, are increasing and continuing, the military tensions in Northeast Asia and the conflicts in the nations are on the rise, making military conflicts more likely than ever before. In response to the North Korean nuclear and missile abilities that rise faster than we anticipated and their aggressive North Korean aggression that can attack Korea and our allies anytime and anywhere, we will review the existing military strategy, It is in urgent need to prepare military measures to be secured North Korea's nuclear and missile tests are provocative and regarded as one-sided and exclusive threats due to the irrational militancy of military dictatorship. Kim Jung Eun, who is a belligerent and exclusively proponent, is currently taking the power of the North and actively pursuing nuclear and missile development. This is part of the international community's concern, as the environment of the Korean Peninsula is likely to lead to war easily in the event of an accidental military conflict and to heighten local instability that causes the surge. Such conflicts and instability will also have a negative impact on the future peace build up on the Korean Peninsula in the long run. Since recognizing North Korea's attempts to develop nuclear weapons, the ROK and the international community have been taking diplomatic efforts and mutually beneficial North Korean policies and measures to denuclearize North Korea and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, but have failed to return North Korea's obsession with its nuclear weapons. Kim Jung Eun declared perpetuity in possession of nuclear weapons and is increasing the possibility of war in Northeast Asia by confronting nuclear disarmament demands of the international community. Now, South Korea should develop a military preparedness and response strategy to face the seriousness of the situation and the ultimate goal of denuclearization of North Korea in case of instability caused by North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. If North Korea is able to counteract sanctions and pressures, it can create a situation where military tensions are heightened by nuclear and missile capabilities. Or the provocative behavior of North Korea may invite military intensification of the United States, and in response to this, North Korea may use nuclear weapons and missiles to heighten tensions around the Korean peninsula. Even in this situation, we must be able to maintain an appropriate and effective military response to North Korea's denuclearization and force North Korea to change its behavior. In response to this, not only the power possessed by the ROK-US Alliance, but also the conventional military force in South Korea should be able to cope with North Korea's threats and prepare for it. In addition, it is necessary to assume the situation that North Korea's advanced nuclear and missile capabilities become increasingly real, and to take necessary measures while reviewing long - term national security policy and response strategy. The best way to build a nuclear deterrent in North Korea, which is certain that North Korea's nuclear capability will continue at a high level of strength, is to respond to the North Korean nuclear crisis with a combined power while maintaining the alliance. We need to increase the credibility to ensure that even a tailored expansion-suppression strategy with a reduced role of nuclear weapons can be provided to Korea at any time. Including the automatic intervention clause in the ROK-US alliance as a mutual defense treaty would be a way to increase the trust of the expanded suppression. In order to prevent the North's nuclear attack, it is necessary to build a Korean 3-axis system properly and to fully utilize it in a timely manner to the extent permitted by the current international norms and systems. The concept of preemptive attack required in the kill chain is held as a strategic plan, but it is considered that it should be refrained from mentioning it in public. Rejection suppression and punitive suppression do not stimulate preemptive response by the enemy. On the other hand, the operating concept of the kill chain is attacking the enemy's signs as well. Excessive mention of a preemptive intention only as a manifestation of "resolve" could lead to a nuclear-armed North Korea that would lead to a surprise preemptive strike to maximize the survival and weaponry effects of a nuclear warhead. The US tactical nuclear relocation theory is not a viable option. This is to ignore the declaration of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which was agreed upon by the two Koreas in 1991, thus losing the cause of the denuclearization of North Korea. There will also be strong opposition from China and Russia, and the US is unlikely to relocate the US tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula. As shown in the Sad deployment process in Korea, the relocation of tactical nuclear weapons is expected to be exhausted from the early stage of the debate by splitting the state. Co-operation of tactical nuclear weapons is not only a formal response strategy, but also participation in the absence of strategic technical operations of nuclear weapons. South Korea's self-reliant nuclear arsenal, which does not rely on the US military response, can be seen as an independent response strategy at first sight. However, even though this is the national well-being and the ideologically optimal plan, there are too many diverse and difficult processes to consider in planning and implementing. Above all, Korea's nuclear weapons development is expected to be a serious blow to the image of the nation that has faithfully implemented the norms of the international community. South Korea's foreign relations, which has promoted exchange and cooperation with the international community based on trust and transparency, is highly likely to suffer diplomatic isolation from the international community at the same time as the Korean nuclear disarmament decision. It will face various sanctions and pressures, economic recession and difficulties in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. Above all, the aftermath of the breakup and departure of the ROK-US alliance will not be easy for Korea. The impact of the North Korean nuclear attack on the vulnerability of the Korean defense may be rather serious. However, it can be an alternative to have a so-called "nuclear potential" that chooses the possibility of "independent nuclear arsenal" as a strategy. If we revise the nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States so that neighboring countries like Japan can concentrate uranium enrichment, such as reprocessing plutonium or delivering it, it will exert a useful deterrent against North Korea. The fact that South Korea completed the nuclear fuel cycle is likely to warn North Korea as a potential nuclear power. At the lower level, the existence of the domestic opinion of Korea as 'complete nuclear power plant and nuclear fuel cycle' alone will provide freedom of action and flexibility in the implementation of foreign policy. On the other hand, there is a need to mass-produce conventional military forces combined with cutting-edge science by promoting ROK military reform. For example, it is a reasonable strategy to respond to North Korea's nuclear missiles by securing military and non-military weapons systems with nuclear weapons-grade destructive power and performance. It is the most important thing for South Korea, which is in the present situation of upgrading its nuclear capability and preparing for a nuclear threat. North Korea has a small number of nuclear weapons, and it must have a sense of crisis that the Korean peninsula can face nuclear war at any time, either by choice or by misjudgment. But now, Korea has not yet prepared effective means and methods to defend the nation from North Korea's nuclear threat and to protect people's lives and property. South Korea should mobilize all its resources to make a decision that Kim Jung Eun regards North Korea's nuclear weapons as obsolete and resolve its security anxieties through dialogue and cooperation. In the process, North Korea's nuclear threat and provocation should be terminated and stalled with resolute and bold retaliation based on the US-ROK alliance. It is necessary to have the military force required for implementation in North Korea's nuclear missile suppression strategy which can fully defend the entire peninsula in the future while maintaining the steady military preparedness to do this.

Key Words : the North's nuclear, denuclearization, neo-realism, nuclear deterrence theory, military strategies, active deterrence strategy.