글로벌 가치사슬에서 부가가치기준 수출의 결정요인에 관한 실증연구

Abstract

ABSTRACT

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of Value Added in Exports along Global Value Chains

Tang, Ying-Lan Advisor : Prof. Kim, Seog-Min, Ph.D. Department of International Trade Graduate School of Chosun University

As different stages of production are now regularly performed in different countries, The revolution in the global value chain has resulted in the rapid growth of international trade in intermediate goods, making traditional statistics on total trade volume seriously misleading for our understanding of the pattern of the world trade and becoming increasingly less reliable as a gauge of the value contributed by any particular country. This paper aims to generalizes the accounting framework that decomposes gross trade, at the sector, bilateral, and bilateral sector levels, into the sum of various value added and double counted items. We also analyzes the potential determinants of value-added exports(DVA) and gross exports on GVC. Based on an accounting framework put forward by Koopman, Wang, and Wei (2014), this paper extends the method of decomposing a country’s gross trade flows put forward by KWW(2014), following Wang, Wei and Zhu(2013)’s methodology decomposes gross trade flows(for both exports and imports) of 44 trading countries in 56 sectors from 2000 to 2014 based on the release of 2016 World Input - Output database(WIOD) at the sector, bilateral, or bilateral sector level. Our new framework decomposes gross trade flows at any level of disaggregation into four major parts: value added exports(DVA), returning domestic value-added(RDV), foreign value added(FVA), and pure double counting terms(PDC) in intermediate goods, These are further divided into 16 pathways depending on tradable goods’ value source, territory of final absorption and absorption channels. And we calculate some widely used indicators in international trade research, including vertical specialization, value-added exports, revealed comparative advantages, GVC_Participation and the GVC_Position indicators. In doing so, first we analysis the limitations of initial Leontief insight that has been applied in the existing literature on the decomposition of final demand and GDP by industry and KWW(2014)’s type of value-added exports based on forward linkages framework gross exports, then we overcome major technical challenges of how to decompose bilateral gross intermediate trade flows based on their final destination of absorption. We present new measures of vertical specialization in international trade based on our generalized accounting framework. we analyze the global value-added network of each industry. we presents a type of value-added exports based on backward linkages, These value-added exports are concepts of trade statistics for eliminating double counted terms in gross exports. Also, we empirical analyze the determinants of value-added exports(DVA) and gross exports. At last, we proposes the of how a new framework to define key sectors based on forward and backward linkages. Empirical evidence shows that domestic market scale(GDP) have more significant positive influence in gross exports than domestic value added. real effective exchange rate have more significant negative influence reduce domestic value added of trade in value added in exports. We also find GDP have a significant positive effect on that material and service domestic value added of trade in value added in exports. The trade barrier have negative impact on domestic value added more than gross exports. In addition, we find that regional trade agreements(FTA) have significant positive influence in domestic value added in exports creation effects, also have significant positive influence in goods and services domestic value added. Furthermore, we find that real effective exchange rate have more negative influence in domestic value added of trade between developing countries and developed countries than domestic value added of trade among developed countries. After that we compare trade data in gross value and value added exports. And we find some distinct features. First, the absolute value of trade data in gross value is higher than in value added. This means that following deepened the supply fragmentation, an existing traditional trade statistics cannot exactly reflect the part of value-added exports. Second, high income countries are more likely to overstate the trade value.