리모델링 공동주택의 가격변화패턴 예측모델

Abstract

Recently, Many Multi-family housing(MFH) complexes are faced with deterioration in Korea. Because of this, interest and importance of remodeling works are increased. However, present condition of remodeling projects in Korea is bad. There are many reasons for this, and one of the main reasons is that there are lack of researches about the economic benefits in remodeling projects. A Successful remodeling projects in MFH owner position is which can create economic benefits with remodeling works. In this study, economic benefits of remodeling projects means the Price change pattern of MFH that has changed price from before remodeling works time point to present. The prediction of economic benefits in planning phase of remodeling project, can help the decision making of MFH owner for remodeling projects. And the purpose of the study is finding the way to predict the price change pattern of MFH which is planned for remodeling project. For this purpose, artificial neural network and decision tree are employed to develop the prediction model. Artificial neural network and decision tree have been successfully applied in a number of diverse fields including pattern classification, prediction, optimization and data analysis for a long time ago. Futhermore, Artificial neural network and decision tree are frequently employed studies of construction such as decision making in planning phase or prediction of project cost. This study shows the artificial neural network model to predict economic benefits of remodeling project and use decision tree to support ANN model. Also, it uses real cases of remodeling projects. It means that these data can be seen as good index to MFH owners for advantages of remodeling works and then, in this study, remodeled MFH prices are objectively compared by setting of comparative cases. Through these model of prediction of Price Change Pattern, it can be used as the prediction of economic benefits of the remodeling project, and it helps MFH owners to decide the remodeling their MFH. Finally, this study can contribute to revitalization of remodeling projects.