개발도상국 국가기상업무 현대화 컨설팅 방법론에 관한 연구

Abstract

ABSTRACTS

A Study for Methodology of Consultation about Modernization for National Weather Services of Developing Countries

Lee Chun Woo Advisor : Prof. Ryu, Chan-Su Ph.D. Department of Atmospheric Science Graduate School of Chosun University

During the relatively short period from 1985 to 2000, Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) had modernized their national meteorological services, from the level of developing countries to the level of advanced countries. KMA had become a unique organization having the experience and technology with which combine various systems such as observation, communication, forecast, climate, delivery system into one comprehensive system based on ICT technology. KMA has become a roll model to the meteorological agencies of developing countries which want to make modernization of their meteorological agency. Korea's Aids in meteorological fields to developing countries were starting from 1998. Meteorological aids are composed of invite training, dispatch experts and project type aids which gives provision of meteorological equipment or systems. In the period from 1998 to 2014, total of 616 trainees were invited from 60 countries in 10 areas and total 11 project type aids was implemented and about 14 billion Korean won were supported. KMA is trying to increase meteorological aids to developing countries in the future. In this dissertation, consultation methodology for modernization of national weather services of developing country has been studied which gives analysis for the environment, diagnosis for current status, design for future model and establishment of action plan. The feasibility study of developing country attempting to modernize national weather services until now was 2 case. The one is for Mongolia and the other is for Myanmar sponsored by IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA). There are several methodology such as ISMP, ISP used in the information science fields for feasibility study and established master plan, but in these cases by applying the methodology of NIPA for IT service information consulting to developing country, Myanmar case were analyzed. The main stream of this methodology is consisted of environment analysis, current status analysis, design future model and establish action plan. Outer environment surrounding Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Myanmar(DMH) and internal environment of DMH was analysed and the current status DMH was investigated. All of meteorological services has been done by manually. Surface observation is made every 3 hourly from 97 stations. Upper air observation is made 1 observation per day only in Yangon. Only weather radar stations are in failure. Two satellite receiving system were installed, the one receives MTSAT of Japan, the other receives FY2 satellite of China which is in out of order. As for telecommunication services, domestic meteorological observation data are collected by SSB and telephone at two regional office and then relay to national headquarter. Concerning about weather forecast, 5 day forecast is issued every day and 10 day forecast is issued 3 times a month and monthly forecast, seasonal forecast are issued. Hydrometeorological observation at 68 hydrological stations in eight major rivers is made for three times per day and the observation elements is water level, water temperature and precipitation. The design of future service model of DMH is as follows; all meteorological service systems are converted to automatic and realtime systems. For surface observation, 49 AWOS and 48 AWS will be installed. 8 upper air station will be re-operated and new 8 windprofilers will be installed at the airport. 4 weather radar stations will be added to 3 radar given by Japan. Krean COMS satellite receiver will be instaled. In the case of weather forecast services, a medium server for forecast analysis work, workstations for forecaster, SW for objective forecast will be installed. PC-Cluster for numerical weather prediction will be installed in conjunction with the KMA , initial and boundary data will be supplied from global model outputs of KMA and data assimilation system will be introduced. For hydrometeorological service, 68 automatic water level gauge will be installed and early warning system will be installed for flood prone area. Action plan for promotion of national meteorological service is as follows: Considering the priority, measures to be suggested future model design stage was presented in a way to promote a three-year periods presented three stages, hence budget was formulated through market research. For completion of the modernization project, it will take 3 stage nine years, and the cost is estimated to require a total of 64.7 million dollars Concerning about automation of surface observation, 49 AWOS stations will be introduced at first stage, 48 AWS introduced in 2nd stage. For upper air station, 4 radiosonde system in 1st stage, 4 radiosonde and 4 wind profilers in 2nd stage, 4 wind profilers in 3rd stage. One S-band weather radar in 1st and 2nd stage and 2 radar in 3rd stage. COMS receiving system will be installed in 2nd stage and polar orbit satellite receiver in 3rd stage. Test equipments for temperature, humidity, pressure, precipitation will be introduce in 1st stage. As for meteorological forecast, construct digital forecast and analysis system is in 1st stage, establish objective forecast and high impact weather forecast is in 2nd stage. For NWP services, model development is continuously needed in 1, 2, 3 stage. In the case of Hydrological services; 68 automated water level gauge is in step 1, 20 of them will be installed in upstream area in step 2. Several alternative pilot project was proposed for selection. First high priority of those is to construct realtime meteorological services system, 2nd priority is to establish realtime hydrological service system and other strong point of Korea meteorological industry is COMS receiver, PC Cluster-based forecast system, climate data rescue system etc. The methodology suggested in this paper with case studied in Myanmar will be usefull to study for other country.