개발도상국 국가기상업무 현대화 컨설팅 방법론에 관한 연구

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A Study for Methodology of Consultation about Modernization for National Weather Services of Developing Countries

Lee Chun Woo
Advisor : Prof. Ryu, Chan-Su Ph.D.
Department of Atmospheric Science Graduate School of Chosun University

During the relatively short period from 1985 to 2000, Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) had modernized their national meteorological services, from the level of developing countries to the level of advanced countries. KMA had become a unique organization having the experience and technology with which combine various systems such as observation, communication, forecast, climate, delivery system into one comprehensive system based on ICT technology. KMA has become a roll model to the meteorological agencies of developing countries which want to make modernization of their meteorological agency.
Korea's Aids in meteorological fields to developing countries were starting from 1998. Meteorological aids are composed of invite training, dispatch experts and project type aids which gives provision of meteorological equipment or systems. In the period from 1998 to 2014, total of 616 trainees were invited from 60 countries in 10 areas and total 11 project type aids was implemented and about 14 billion Korean won were supported. KMA is trying to increase meteorological aids to developing countries in the future.
In this dissertation, consultation methodology for modernization of national weather services of developing country has been studied which gives analysis for the environment, diagnosis for current status, design for future model and establishment of action plan.
The feasibility study of developing country attempting to modernize national weather services until now was 2 case. The one is for Mongolia and the other is for Myanmar sponsored by IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA). There are several methodology such as ISMP, ISP used in the information science fields for feasibility study and established master plan, but in these cases by applying the methodology of NIPA for IT service information consulting to developing country, Myanmar case were analyzed. The main stream of this methodology is consisted of environment analysis, current status analysis, design future model and establish action plan.
Outer environment surrounding Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Myanmar(DMH) and internal environment of DMH was analysed and the current status DMH was investigated.
All of meteorological services has been done by manually. Surface observation is made every 3 hourly from 97 stations. Upper air observation is made 1 observation per day only in Yangon. Only weather radar stations are in failure. Two satellite receiving system were installed, the one receives MTSAT of Japan, the other receives FY2 satellite of China which is in out of order.
As for telecommunication services, domestic meteorological observation data are collected by SSB and telephone at two regional office and then relay to national headquarter.
Concerning about weather forecast, 5 day forecast is issued every day and 10 day forecast is issued 3 times a month and monthly forecast, seasonal forecast are issued.
Hydrometeorological observation at 68 hydrological stations in eight major rivers is made for three times per day and the observation elements is water level, water temperature and precipitation.
The design of future service model of DMH is as follows; all meteorological service systems are converted to automatic and realtime systems. For surface observation, 49 AWOS and 48 AWS will be installed. 8 upper air station will be re-operated and new 8 windprofilers will be installed at the airport. 4 weather radar stations will be added to 3 radar given by Japan. Krean COMS satellite receiver will be instaled.
In the case of weather forecast services, a medium server for forecast analysis work, workstations for forecaster, SW for objective forecast will be installed. PC-Cluster for numerical weather prediction will be installed in conjunction with the KMA , initial and boundary data will be supplied from global model outputs of KMA and data assimilation system will be introduced.
For hydrometeorological service, 68 automatic water level gauge will be installed and early warning system will be installed for flood prone area.
Action plan for promotion of national meteorological service is as follows: Considering the priority, measures to be suggested future model design stage was presented in a way to promote a three-year periods presented three stages, hence budget was formulated through market research. For completion of the modernization project, it will take 3 stage nine years, and the cost is estimated to require a total of 64.7 million dollars
Concerning about automation of surface observation, 49 AWOS stations will be introduced at first stage, 48 AWS introduced in 2nd stage. For upper air station, 4 radiosonde system in 1st stage, 4 radiosonde and 4 wind profilers in 2nd stage, 4 wind profilers in 3rd stage. One S-band weather radar in 1st and 2nd stage and 2 radar in 3rd stage. COMS receiving system will be installed in 2nd stage and polar orbit satellite receiver in 3rd stage. Test equipments for temperature, humidity, pressure, precipitation will be introduce in 1st stage.
As for meteorological forecast, construct digital forecast and analysis system is in 1st stage, establish objective forecast and high impact weather forecast is in 2nd stage. For NWP services, model development is continuously needed in 1, 2, 3 stage.
In the case of Hydrological services; 68 automated water level gauge is in step 1, 20 of them will be installed in upstream area in step 2.
Several alternative pilot project was proposed for selection. First high priority of those is to construct realtime meteorological services system, 2nd priority is to establish realtime hydrological service system and other strong point of Korea meteorological industry is COMS receiver, PC Cluster-based forecast system, climate data rescue system etc.
The methodology suggested in this paper with case studied in Myanmar will be usefull to study for other country.
Alternative Title
A Study for Methodology of Consultation about Modernization for National Weather Services of Developing Countries
Alternative Author(s)
Lee, Chun Woo
일반대학원 대기과학과
Table Of Contents
목 차

표 목 차 vii
그림목차 xi

제1장 서론 1

제2장 환경분석 6
2.1 외부환경 분석 6
2.1.1 미얀마 국가 개요 6
2.1.2 미얀마의 지리적 특성 7
2.1.3 미얀마의 기상․기후 특성 8
2.1.4 미얀마의 자연 재해 9

2.2 내부환경 분석 12
2.2.1 미얀마기상청의 조직, 인력, 법규 12
2.2.2 미얀마기상청의 예산 15
2.2.3 미얀마기상청의 국제협력 15
2.2.4 미얀마기상청의 교육 훈련 16

2.3 정보기술 동향 17
2.3.1 세계기술 동향 17
2.3.2 미얀마 기술 동향 17
2.4 SWOT 분석 20

제3장 현행업무 분석 22
3.1 기상관측업무 22
3.1.1 지상기상관측 23
가. 지상기상관측업무 현황 23
나. 지상기상관측업무의 문제점 28
3.1.2 고층기상관측 29
3.1.3 기상레이더관측 31
3.1.4 기상위성관측 32
3.1.5 기상측기의 검․교정 35

3.2 기상통신업무 37
3.2.1 국제 기상정보통신 37
3.2.2 국내 기상정보통신 39
3.2.3 기상업무 전산화 42

3.3 기상예보업무 44
3.3.1 일반예보업무 44
3.3.2 수치예보업무 53

3.4 수문업무 56
3.4.1 수문기상관측 56
3.4.2 수문기상예보 61
3.4.3 조기경보체제 62
3.4.4 수문기상업무의 문제점 63

3.5 기상통계 ․ 기후자료 관리업무 65
3.5.1 지상기상통계 65
3.5.2 기후자료관리 66

3.6 응용기상업무 68
3.6.1 농업기상업무 68
3.6.2 항공기상업무 71
3.6.3 해양기상업무 74

3.7 지진업무 76
3.7.1 지진․쓰나미 업무 76

3.8 선진사례분석 81

3.9 이슈 및 개선 방향성 도출 83

제4장 미얀마 기상업무의 미래모형 설계 84
4.1 기상관측업무 84
4.1.1 지상기상관측업무 84
가. 개선방향 84
나. 개선대책 84
4.1.2 고층기상관측업무 85
4.1.3 기상레이더관측업무 87
4.1.4 기상위성관측업무 89
4.1.5 기상측기 검정업무 91

4.2 기상통신업무 93
4.2.1 국제기상통신 93
4.2.2 국내기상통신 94
4.2.3 기상업무 전산화 96

4.3 기상예보업무 98
4.3.1 일반예보업무 98
4.3.2 수치예보업무 100

4.4 수문업무 104
4.4.1 수문기상업무 104

4.5 기상통계 ․ 기후자료 관리업무 105
4.5.1 기상통계․기후자료 관리 106

4.6 응용기상업무 107
4.6.1 농업기상업무 107
4.6.2 항공기상업무 108
4.6.3 해양기상업무 109

4.7 지진업무 110
4.7.1 지진․쓰나미 업무 110

제5장 실행계획 수립 111
5.1 기상관측업무 111
5.1.1 지상기상관측업무 111
가. 현대화 실행계획 111
나. 소요예산 112
5.1.2 고층기상관측업무 112
5.1.3 기상레이더관측 113
5.1.4 기상위성관측업무 114
5.1.5 기상측기검정업무 115

5.2 기상통신업무 118
5.2.1 국제기상통신 업무 118
5.2.2 국내기상통신 업무 119
5.2.3 기상업무 전산화 업무 120

5.3 기상예보업무 121
5.3.1 일반예보업무 121
5.3.2 수치예보업무 122

5.4 수문업무 123
5.4.1 수문기상업무 123

5.5 기상통계 관리업무 124
5.5.1 기상통계․기후자료 관리업무 124

5.6 응용기상업무 125
5.6.1 농업기상업무 125
5.6.2 항공기상업무 126
5.6.3 해양기상업무 127

5.7 지진업무 128
5.7.1 지진․쓰나미 업무 128

제6장 시범사업 추진 129
6.1 현대화 계획 예산 종합 129
6.2 현대화 계획 추진 방법 131

6.3 현대화 시범사업 133
6.3.1 시범사업 선정 방법론 133
6.3.2 시범사업 선정 135

제7장 결론 138

참고문헌 144

영문약어표 147

사사 1
이천우. (2015). 개발도상국 국가기상업무 현대화 컨설팅 방법론에 관한 연구.
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