코스닥 신규상장 기업의 재무위험 지수가 상장폐지에 미치는 영향

Abstract

Companies listed in KOSDAQ have high technology but the possibilities for success of business are low. The insolvent companies cause extensive damages not only to the interested parties of the companies, but also to the national economy. The inefficient use of the assets, which causes lowered profitability, stability and activeness, may bring about a company's insolvency. The purpose of this study is to develop and to applicate falling prediction model of KOSDAQ firms using logistic regression analysis. And the prediction of the insolvent companies would be a huge contribution to reduce or to prevent the extensive damages. Therefore, the bankruptcy could be predicted by applying a uniquely combined K-Score model, which has log(total asset), log(sales/total asset), retained earnings/total asset, and debt ratio as its factors, to the logistic regression. This study is to examine the relationship between the Corporate insolvency prediction index(K-Score) and delisting of initial public offerings(IPO) firms in KOSDAQ. This study shows the empirical results through statistical descriptive statistics, coefficient of correlation, mean difference analysis and the multiple regression tables. The test sample consists of 1,077 firm-year data, selected from the KOSDAQ listed companies of the fiscal year during 1996-2012. This study verified the hypothese as follows; 1) K-Score lower may be delisted. To test the hypotheses, the models include Corporate insolvency prediction index(K-Score) for the proxies of financial healthiness as the main dependant variables. The test models contains other control variables such as firm size(SIZE), debt ratio(DEBT), block-holders(BLOK), history of engaging career(LONG) and big auditors(BIG). The results of this study are summarized Firstly, there are likely to be delisted company which K-score is negative. Secondly, the main result of the research is that while the insolvent prediction model developed through orporate insolvency prediction index(K-Score) is simple, it appears to have a high prediction ratio. Lastly, so it could be expected to be well-generalized and easily used in predicting a company's insolvency.