중국의 고령화가 노동시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

ABSTRACT

A Study on the Labor Market Effects of Aging Population in China

Li Xu Advisor : Prof. Jong-Il Choe, Ph.D. Department of Economics, Graduate School of Chosun University

China is one of the developing countries which first faced the aging problem. China not only has the largest aging population, which comprising 1/5 of the aging people of the world's aging population, but also has been experiencing a rapid population aging. But the effects of aging on the labor market, labor productivity, and wage are not clear and previous literature is still confusing. By referring to the related information on the aging population of China, I analyzed the status of China’s aging society, birth rate, death rate, increasing life expectancy and population policies, and then disclosed the reasons for China’s aging problem. Then, I did a further study of the characteristics and problems of China’s aging society. The characters are the following: high aging speed, sharp increase in super-aged population, huge numbers of aging population, getting old before getting rich, high aging dependency ratio and huge differences among areas. This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market in China. The paper uses 17 years panel data of metropolitan and provinces, from 1995 to 2011. The estimating method are Fixed effects model and Random variable model. The Hausman test result is used to decide whether Fixed effects model or Random variable model should be used. The estimated result is the decrease of labor productivity and payment caused by the aging problem especially in the whole nation and the eastern. The eastern area is an economically developed region, its aging problem is more serious than in other parts of China. So its labor productivity and payment is much lower than the average payment in China. The suggestions to these problems are: First, China needs to change the family planning policy and the local government should coordinate positively. Second, the policy of social endowment is urgently needed. Third is the problem of labor productivity: increasing labor and technical education, replenishing labor force and technological innovation are all possible solution methods.

Key words: Aging population, Labor Market, Labor Productivity, Wage