우리나라에서 기후변화에 대한 작물의 변화 연구

Abstract

South Korea had an exceptionally long and hot summer in 2013, along with long rainy season, excessive heat, and tropical nights, which lasted until the end of September. This is considered an effect of climate change. The climate change affects not only South Korea, but also the rest of the world. It has become the topic of the century, and has been regarded as an unavoidable phenomenon.

Climate change has a life-altering effect on people, such as dietary habit, food shortage due to temperature rise, and insufficient water resource, thereby resulting in alternative food resource recovery. This study is implemented to understand the levels of climate change and the crop change trends. The result showed that the annual mean temperature had the tendency to increase at a rate of 0.259oC/decade, and the areas with an annual mean temperature of 0oC expanded from the southern part to the central part in South Korea according to the choropleth map. The annual maximum temperature had the tendency to increase at a rate of 0.253oC/decade, and the annual minimum temperature increased by 0.462oC/decade. The climbing speed of the annual minimum temperature change appeared greater than the annual mean and maximum temperature changes. This is due to the changes in season length and the increase in the number of days when the temperature rose and lasted. The daily precipitation had the tendency to increase at a rate of 45.342mm/decade; however, the mean humidity and the mean dew point temperature showed tendencies to decrease at rates of -2.019%/decade and -0.251oC/decade, respectively. This means that the precipitation type has been altered and concentrated during these particular periods.

The rice cultivation area has decreased at a rate of -10934ha/year; however, the productions per 10a of white rice, brown rice, and rough grain have increased at rates of 2.250kg/annum, 2.611kg/annum and 2.050kg/annum, respectively. This is due to plant breeding and developments of agricultural technologies. The paddy rice cultivation area has also decreased at a rate of -10961ha; however, the productions per 10a of white rice, brown rice, and rough grain have increased at rates of 2.260kg/annum, 2.644kg/annum and 2.090kg/annum, respectively. Unlike the increase of the rice and the paddy rice cultivation areas, the upland rice showed a slight increase of 27.207ha/annum, and the productions of 10a of white rice, brown rice, and rough grain have increased at rates of 1.970kg/annum, 2.662kg/annum and 2.772k/annum, respectively. The paddy rice occupied most of the rice cultivation area, and its production also appeared significantly larger compared to that of the upland rice.

According to the correlation analysis results of the climate and crop production data, the crop production changes due to climate change showed that the climate change had favorable effects on all crops, excluding the sweet potato. However, excessive temperature rise and moisture increase can harm the crops. As a result, constant climate changes are not always beneficial.

The climate element constantly changes. Moreover, the changes of mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation (according to the RCP 4.5 scenario) predict that the climate changes in the future will intensify. The climate change may also impact the crops in various ways, wherein it may be impossible to cultivate the currently cultivating species in the future as opposed to the crops that are not possible for cultivation at the moment. This will give considerable effects on the increase of farm income. However, this is impossible to achieve without conducting studies on irrigation facility managements and expansions, crop cultivation environments, plant breeding, and new crops. Climate change similarly affects blights as it threads crops; therefore, preparations should be made against new blights and their transformations.

Dietary habit has a significant role in people’s lives, while crops and foods are elements that have great recycling potentials. Furthermore, weather and climate conditions are important elements for the growth and development of crops. For this reason, weather forecasts, as well as predictions of weather and climate condition changes, are likely to control and manage crop productions to some extent. Information regarding agro-meteorological weather forecast is considered limited. The climate elements, which have been previously studied, were mostly observed at specific areas only, thereby lacking further observation. In consideration of the crop production changes, weaponization of food, water resource shortage in the future, preparations are necessary, recognizing the importance of agriculture and food resource.